The False Positive Rate for the COVID-19 rRT-PCR Test

Scottish Government did not have the information requested.

Dear Scottish Government,

If UK ministers like the Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP do not understand the implications of a false positive rate applying to the whole population tested and not the positive cases (as was identified very recently by Julia Hartley-Brewer in an interview) then maybe the Scottish Ministers do.

What is the most recently recorded false positive rate for the real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) COVID-19 test that is used to test the people living in Scotland?

Yours faithfully,

J Grove

Scottish Government

Our Reference: 202000107183
Your Reference: request-703562-44bfd861

Dear J Grove,

Thank you for your correspondence sent on 04/11/2020. Your query will be
passed to the relevant area for consideration and has been given a
reference number of 202000107183. Please quote this number in all
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as quickly as possible and within the stated timescale as indicated on our
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(http://www.gov.scot/about/contact-inform...).

Yours sincerely
MiCase
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Dear Scottish Government,

Please pass this on to the person who conducts Freedom of Information reviews.

I am writing to request an internal review of Scottish Government's handling of my FOI request 'The False Positive Rate for the COVID-19 rRT-PCR Test'.

By this point the Scottish Government should have been advised (by Prof Jason Leitch or one of the advsors that is covered by the Lobbying (Scotland) Act 2016) of the retraction-request letter sent to Eurosurveillance by Dr. Peter Borger et al to the extended Review Report submission via the Eurosurveillance online-submission portal.

The submission date was 27th November 2020.

This report casts very serious doubt, detailed in ten points of concern, on the published COVID-19 Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction test protocol. It also implies that the initial publication was not peer reviewed.

Given this information the Scottish Government must have records on the false posive rate of the "antigen test" and this must be recorded on Scottish Government systems, to suggest otherwise would indicate that the Scottish Government is responsible for enacting policies that will lead to a loss of life and not having the accurate and recorded scientific information to base these decisions on.

The Scottish Government should have this information recorded and the date when this information was first recorded on Scottish Government systems.

A full history of my FOI request and all correspondence is available on the Internet at this address: https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/t...

Yours faithfully,

J Grove

Scottish Government

Our Reference: 202000122160
Your Reference: Internal review of Freedom of Information request - The
False Positive Rate for the COVID-19 rRT-PCR Test

Dear J Grove ,

Thank you for your correspondence received on 09/12/2020. Your query will
be passed to the relevant area for consideration and has been given a
reference number of 202000122160. Please quote this number in all
correspondence. The Scottish Government aim to respond, where necessary,
as quickly as possible and within the stated timescale as indicated on our
website
(http://www.gov.scot/about/contact-inform...).

Yours sincerely
MiCase
Correspondence system for SG and partner agencies

The Scottish Government takes your privacy seriously. You may have written
to us because you have a question or want to make a complaint. Our privacy
notice
(https://beta.gov.scot/publications/conta...),
available on our website, sets out how we use your personal data, and your
rights when communicating with us. It is made under Article 13 of the
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).
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Communications with the Scottish Government may be monitored or recorded
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Scottish Government

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Bartholomeus Lakeman (Account suspended) left an annotation ()

The Govt. reply and its referred websites (e.g., MHRA and https://www.hps.scot.nhs.uk/web-resource... ) do not provide the false positive rate of the PCR tests. Yet in it is a link to a Cochrane review of 310 pages called “Antibody tests for identification of current and past infection with SARS-CoV-2”

This Cochrane is a review of 4 different Chinese studies which include 3481 samples of which 555 are Covid-19 cases, either asymptomatic, acute, mild and severe; either in- out- hospital or community. The antibody IgA, IgG & IgM titters are measured by 4 different antibody tests (mainly ELISA) provided and compared by ±40 Brands. The number of studies which report a cross-reactions (of the tested IgA, IgG & IgM) with other pathogens are about the same as those who reported no cross-reactions to other infection sources. These tests have in average a specificity of 60%. What was not measured is the Humoral immunity; the most important protection against pathogens and disease.

To measure the validity of the RT PCR test, this review (pg. 252 -265) uses 21 tests comparing between various IgA, IgG & IgM tests with that of the positive RT PCR test results. IgG/IgM in PCR+ve was measured over 1-, 2- & 3-weeks intervals and all time points. These show that the PCR test’s average sensitivity is about 85%, yet the PCR test’s Specificity was never estimable. To calculate said sensitivity it did not mentioned which average Ct value was used. Overall, this review shows that the number amd rate of true PCR test positive is rather small or negligible.

In the scientific community is a Cochrane review regarded as the golden standard; and so, this review’s verdict on the PCR test’s validity is a verdict that cannot be ignored or denied.
So, by the Govt.’ own piece of reply; it admits that a positive PCR test result is no proof of a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Bartholomeus Lakeman (Account suspended) left an annotation ()

To encourage vaccination the RT-PCR test cycles threshold for a Vaccinated person has been reduced to 28 whilst for an Un-vaccinated the NHS has kept it up to 40 (the test sensitivity for un-vaccinated is set higher by >4,000 times). This two tier system implies that the NHS and Govt knew very well what Ct value was used prior and during the vaccination campaign.
Further, the proof of being vaccinated or having a negative test is to implement a social segregation system: good citizens -vs- those who will be deprived from traveling, family life and employment