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Statistics about SHMAs and Population Projections

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Dear Department for Communities and Local Government,

I would like to ask some questions about Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs) and the methodology used to create the CLG population projections that are used as the starting points for SHMAs produced under the current NPPF.

1) Can you provide an analysis of all SHMAs created under the current NPPF (or past five years) to show:

a. The starting point dwelling building rate that would be required to meet housing need using the DCLG population projections.

b. The changes made to the housing requirements as a result of adjusting the baseline DCLG projections for
i. Changes to migration in and out of the local authority area
ii. Changes to expected household size
iii. Jobs forecasts

c. The end result dwelling building rate as a result of the changes in b above.
I would be grateful if this could be broken down into local authority area or housing market area. By way of example, The Hart, Surrey Heath and Rushmoor SHMA started at 790 dwellings p.a. using the DCLG population projections and then as a result of the adjustments above ended up with a rate of 1,180 dwelling per annum ( http://www.hart.gov.uk/sites/default/fil... ).

2) Can you answer some questions about the way the DCLG population projections are put together:

a. What underlying assumptions are made about inward and outward migration into an area? Is there are national formula, or do you rely upon projected forwards the past 5 years migration?

b. What underlying assumptions are made about average household size? Do you use either the 2008 or 2011 average household size projections and incorporate them into the population projections or do you use another method, if so, what other method?

c. What underlying assumptions are made on jobs growth and the impact that will have on population by local authority area?

3) Thinking now specifically about my local area, can you answer questions 2a, b & c, specifically for Hart, Rushmoor and Surrey Heath please; that is to say what specific assumptions about migration, household size and jobs growth were made in the 2011-based DCLG population projections for these three local authorities?

4) What changes have been made for the 2012-based projections?

Thank you for your help.

Yours faithfully,

David Turver

Timothy Hayward, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government

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Our reference: 1495766             Information request

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Dear Mr Turver
 
Environmental Information Regulations 2004
 
Thank you for contacting us on 8 October 2015 requesting information about
Strategic Housing Market Assessments

I am dealing with your request under the Environmental Information
Regulations 2004 and aim to send you a response by 5 November 2015.
 
If you have any questions, please ask by return email. Please leave the
subject line unchanged when replying, to make sure your email gets
straight to me.
 
Yours sincerely
 
Tim Hayward
 
 
[1][email address]

References

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Timothy Hayward, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government

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Our reference: 1495766             Information request

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Dear Mr Turver
 
Thank you for your request for information. Please find our response
attached.
 
Yours sincerely
 
 
Tim Hayward
 
 
[1][email address]
 
NOTE: Please do not edit the subject line when replying to this email.

References

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1. mailto:[email address]

Dear Timothy Hayward,

Thank you for your reply. Given the importance that the Government is placing on delivering more housing, I find it very surprising that the DCLG is not collecting in copies of all the SHMAs so they can monitor the progress of local authorities and make an assessment of the likelihood of meeting the national housing targets.

Perhaps you might wish to consider this, and decide to do some proper monitoring of progress.

Yours sincerely,

David Turver

Despatch Box, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government

This is an unmonitored inbox and your email has been removed. If your email was in reply to one of our emails, please ensure that you do not amend the subject line. You will need to refer to your original point of contact for any assistance.

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David Turver left an annotation ()

Does the latest reply saying my request for internal review has been deleted indicate that this won't go any further?

How do I re-instate the request?

Richard Taylor left an annotation ()

David,

If you try and use the "write a reply" link again and this time choose the option to write to the main FOI email address for the Department for Communities and Local Government your internal review request should get through.

The problem occurred as replying to the last response prompted the message you've seen - my view is that's not a very friendly way for Government to behave! It actually looks as if the Department's 'ICasework' system has broken or has been mis-configured as the response indicated the intent was that it could be replied to.

Regards,

--

Richard - WhatDoTheyKnow.com volunteer

Dear Department for Communities and Local Government,

Thank you for your reply. I am afraid that I find it difficult to believe that the DCLG doesn't track what is happening with SHMA's across the country. Moreover, if the DCLG isn't doing that, then it should be - how else will the DCLG know whether we are on track to meet national housing targets?

I would therefore like to request an internal review and ask that you search again for the the data.

Yours faithfully,

David Turver

Juliet Voss, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government

                            
Our reference: 1495766             Information request

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

 
Dear Mr Turver
 
Internal review under the 
Environmental Information Regulations 2004
 
Thank you for your request for a review received on 9 November 2015. I am
sorry that you are dissatisfied with our attempts to handle your request
under the Environmental Information Regulations 2004
 
I am considering your concerns and will aim to provide you with a response
by 8 December 2015.
 
Yours sincerely
 
 
Juliet Voss
 
0303 444 2222
[email address]
 
NOTE: Please do not edit the subject line when replying to this email.

Ben Heathcote, Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government

1 Attachment

                            
Our reference: 1495766             Information request

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Mr Turver

Please find attached the Department's response to your request for an
internal review, ref: 1495766.

Yours sincerely
 
 
Ben Heathcote
Lead FOI Business Partner - Finance and Corporate Services
 
[email address]

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