Problems with Methodology for 2014 Badger Cull Targets

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Dear Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs,
The stated aim of the badger cull has always been to kill 70% of
the local badgers. Any less than 70% risks making the TB problem
worse, any more risks local extinction.

1. If the lower target of 316 for W Somerset is 70% of the badger
population this would mean you estimate there are only 451 live
badgers in total and the maximum number to be killed - 785 - would
not be possible as it would mean wiping out the entire local
population 1.7 times. Can you please say what percentage of the
population 316 represents if not 70%?

1b. If 316 is estimated to be 70% of the population it is hard to
see how you are ensuring there is no local extinction which would
be in contravention of the Bern Agreement?

2. On the other hand if the upper target, 785, is 70% of the total
number of badgers, this means there are 1,121 live badgers in West
Somerset Killing and only 316 of them would be less than 30%, well
below the 70% target. At this level wouldn't perturbation and
disease spread be a likely outcome?

2b. If so why are you setting targets that are likely to spread
disease?

3. Perhaps you have however estimated 70% of the population as
being somewhere between 316 and 785? If you have estimated 70% of
the population at 550.5 ( midway between the lowest and highest
targets), this means you think the population is 786. In this case
if you killed killed your lower target number of 316 this would be
only be 40%; again isn't this far too few to avoid high risk
perturbation?

3b. On the other hand if you thought there 550.5 badgers was 70% of
the population and you killed your upper target of 785 you would
still be killing ALL the badgers EXCEPT ONE.

4. In fact there is no 70% population estimate for this target
range without allowing for the killing of either far too few or far
too many badgers, according to the government's own criteria for
the pilots. Please therefore explain why you have adopted these
targets and how you have derived the target range.

Yours faithfully,

Margot Young

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Yours faithfully,

Margot Young

Helpline, Defra (CCU), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

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