Problems with Methodology for 2014 Badger Cull Targets

The request was successful.

Dear Natural England,

The stated aim of the badger cull has always been to kill 70% of the local badgers. Any less than 70% risks making the TB problem worse, any more risks local extinction.

1. If the lower target of 316 for W Somerset is 70% of the badger population this would mean you estimate there are only 451 live badgers in total and the maximum number to be killed - 785 - would not be possible as it would mean wiping out the entire local population 1.7 times. Can you please say what percentage of the population 316 represents if not 70%?

1b. If 316 is estimated to be 70% of the population it is hard to see how you are ensuring there is no local extinction which would be in contravention of the Bern Agreement?

2. On the other hand if the upper target, 785, is 70% of the total number of badgers, this means there are 1,121 live badgers in West Somerset Killing and only 316 of them would be less than 30%, well below the 70% target. At this level wouldn't perturbation and disease spread be a likely outcome?

2b. If so why are you setting targets that are likely to spread disease?

3. Perhaps you have however estimated 70% of the population as being somewhere between 316 and 785? If you have estimated 70% of the population at 550.5 ( midway between the lowest and highest targets), this means you think the population is 786. In this case if you killed killed your lower target number of 316 this would be only be 40%; again isn't this far too few to avoid high risk perturbation?

3b. On the other hand if you thought there 550.5 badgers was 70% of the population and you killed your upper target of 785 you would still be killing ALL the badgers EXCEPT ONE.

4. In fact there is no 70% population estimate for this target range without allowing for the killing of either far too few or far too many badgers, according to the government's own criteria for the pilots. Please therefore explain why you have adopted these targets and how you have derived the target range.

Yours faithfully,

Margot Young

BTB (NE), Natural England

3 Attachments

Dear Ms Young,

 Please find attached our response to your Request For Information (RFI)
2657:

<<20141003- RFI2657 - Population Estimates - RESPONSE.pdf>>

Kind Regards,

[1]Picture (Device Independent Bitmap)

Bovine TB Licensing Unit

Natural England, BM 6283,

London, WC1N 3XX

Tel: 0300 060 0550 - lines are open during office hours

Email: [2][email address]

[3]www.naturalengland.org.uk/

We are here to secure a healthy natural environment for people to enjoy,
where wildlife is protected and England's traditional landscapes are
safeguarded for future generations.

In an effort to reduce Natural England's carbon footprint, I will,
wherever possible, avoid travelling to meetings and attend via audio,
video or web conferencing.

Natural England is accredited to the Cabinet Office Customer Service
Excellence Standard

References

Visible links
2. mailto:[email address]
3. http://www.naturalengland.org.uk/