HS2 - Claim it will carry over 300,000 people per day

Response to this request is delayed. By law, High Speed Two (HS2) Limited should normally have responded promptly and by (details)

Dear High Speed Two (HS2) Limited,

HS2 documents published in November 2016 state that "HS2 is expected to carry over 300,000 people every day, supporting a wider transformation in the way we travel."

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/sy...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hs2-r...

Please provide the information used that shows how the figure of 300,000 was arrived at.
This should include, as a minimum, the expected flows between each of the proposed stations on the new HS2 infrastructure i.e. Euston, Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Curzon Street, Manchester Airport, Piccadilly, East Midlands Hub, Sheffield and Leeds where these journeys can be made using HS2. This should ideally be in the form of an Origin - Destination grid.
It should also include all journeys from any of the above stations to any other places north of Crewe or north of Leeds that will be served by HS2 trains. Ideally this should be broken down to station pairs in a grid, but as a minimum it should show the total numbers travelling to all destinations north of Crewe (except Manchester) and and to all destinations north of Leeds to/from each of the new HS2 stations.
I expect that it may also include passengers who only use HS2 trains to travel between stations not on the new infrastructure e.g. York - Edinburgh or Preston - Glasgow. If that is the case, please provide figures for those journeys as well.

Yours faithfully,

J Marriott

HS2Enquiries, High Speed Two (HS2) Limited

Thank you for your email which has been forwarded to FOI.

Kind regards

Simone Wright | Helpdesk | HS2 Ltd
Tel: 020 7944 4908 | [email address] | Facebook | Twitter | LinkedIn
High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, 2 Snowhill, Queensway, Birmingham, B4 6GA | www.gov.uk/hs2

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HS2Enquiries, High Speed Two (HS2) Limited

Dear Mr Marriott

Thank you for your email to HS2 Ltd. We are considering your request under the Environmental Information Regulations (EIR) 2004 and aim to reply as soon as possible and no later than 29/03/2017.

Your reference number for the request is FOI17-1708.

Kind regards,
N Neta

Mrs N Neta| Freedom of Information Advisor | HS2 Ltd 
Tel: 020 7944 4908 | [email address]
High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, One Canada Square, London E14 5AB  | www.gov.uk/hs2

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HS2Enquiries, High Speed Two (HS2) Limited

4 Attachments

Dear Mr Marriott,

 

Thank you for your email to HS2 Ltd. Your request has been treated under
the Freedom of Information Act (2000) and I attach our response.

 

Kind regards,

Jane Ivey

 

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Jane Ivey | Freedom of Information Manager | HS2 Ltd 

Tel: 020 7944 4908 | [1][email address] | [2]Facebook | [3]Twitter
| [4]LinkedIn

High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, One Canada Square, London E14 5AB  |
[5]www.gov.uk/hs2

 

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Dear HS2Enquiries,

Thank you for your reply to my query regarding the claim that over 300,000 people would use HS2 each day.

My question requested the 'expected' flows between pairs of HS2 stations which, when summed, I anticipated would provide the basis for the claim. You seem to have interpreted my question as asking for the 'existing' flows between stations.
You also say you hold passenger flow information between origin and destination zones but do not say whether this relates to existing demand, future forecasts or both. I would therefore ask you to reconsider my request.

With regard to the current demand, the July 2013 Demand and Appraisal Report
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/sy...
contains several tables showing the current demand (as at 2010/11) between individual cities or groups of stations to some main destinations :-
Table 3.1 Manchester; Table 4.1 Liverpool, Runcorn, Crewe & Stafford; Table 5.1 Warrington, Wigan & Preston; Table 6.1 Nottingham, Leicester & Derby; Table 7.1 Sheffield; and Table 8.1 Leeds.
From these six tables the total two-way weekday demand to London would appear to be 33,800 of which it appears that around 27,000 may have HS2 as an option.
Can you confirm that the figures in these tables are valid and confirm that 'two-way' means a journey in both directions, i.e. a return journey?

The 2012 Demand and Appraisal Report for HS2
www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/upl...
states (3.2.11) that in 2010 there were approximately 62,000 long distance passengers per day using inter-city trains on the southern section of the WCML.
Does it relate to a one-way journey? Is this figure regarded as valid?

The prospectus for the West Coast Partnership Franchise
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/sy...
states that the demand is 'over 35 million passenger journeys'. This presumably relates to the whole WCML franchise for one year. If so, that suggests that the daily figure for the entire franchise is around 100,000 journeys.
HS2 documents and Network Rail Route Utilisation Strategies (RUS) also make various references to existing demand.

I would therefore like to know why you consider the release of current demand information is not in the public interest when figures exist which purport to give an indication of current demand and presumably more detailed information will be need to be made available to bidders for the West Coast Partnership. There is a very real public interest in releasing the best available information so that HS2 projections and forecasting methodology can be scrutinised. There is a history of schemes where previous attempts to accurately predict demand have failed and any issues of commercial confidentiality must be judged against the huge risk of getting the HS2 forecasts wrong.

Yours sincerely,

J Marriott

HS2Enquiries, High Speed Two (HS2) Limited

2 Attachments

Dear Mr Marriott

 

Thank you for your email which has been forwarded to FOI.

 

Regards

 

 

Simone Wright | Helpdesk | HS2 Ltd

Tel: 020 7944 4908 | [1][email address] | [2]Facebook | [3]Twitter
| [4]LinkedIn

High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, 2 Snowhill, Queensway, Birmingham, B4 6GA |
[5]www.gov.uk/hs2

 

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HS2Enquiries, High Speed Two (HS2) Limited

2 Attachments

Dear Mr Marriott,

 

Thank you for your email.

 

I have discussed your response with our Economic & Commercial Analysis
team and can provide some further information as follows:

 

-          I can confirm that our response was in relation to the forecast
passenger flows, not existing passenger flows. The information that you
have requested remains highly commercially sensitive because the forecast
passenger flows take as their starting point current market information
and it would make it possible to derive the current information.

 

-          With regard to the information contained in the tables in the
July 2013 Demand and Appraisal report, two-way trips are return trips to
and from the destinations listed.

-          The information in tables 3.1, 4.1, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 and 8.1 was
derived from version 3 of the Planet Framework Model (PFM) which was
correct at the time of publishing. Since 2013 when this information was
published, a programme of development has been undertaken on the PFM. For
example, the Phase 2a Strategic Outline Business Case in 2015 used model
version PFMv5.2b and version PFMv6.1c will be used in supporting future
HS2 Business Cases. An overview of the changes and updates is available in
the Model Development Report: Planet Framework Model version 6.1:
[1]https://www.gov.uk/government/publicatio....

 

-          The figure provided in para 3.2.11 of the 2012 Demand and
Appraisal Report for the number of long distance passengers per day in
2010 is based on one-way trips.

 

-          The information in para 3.2.11 was derived from an early
version of the PFM. Further information about this version is available in
the Model Development and Baseline Report April 2012:
[2]http://assets.hs2.org.uk/sites/default/f....

 

You ask that HS2 Ltd reconsider your request for the expected passenger
flows as per your email dated 1 March. We will treat this as a request for
an internal review of our decision under the Freedom of Information Act
(2000) and will respond as soon as possible and no later than 28 April.
Your reference number for the internal review is FOI17-1708R.

 

Kind regards,

Jane Ivey

 

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Jane Ivey | Freedom of Information Manager | HS2 Ltd 

 

Tel: 020 7944 4908 | [1][email address] | [2]Facebook | [3]Twitter  |
[4]LinkedIn

 

High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, One Canada Square, London E14 5AB  |

[5][13]www.gov.uk/hs2

 

 

 

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Dear HS2Enquiries,

I refer to your reply dated 4th April 2017 regarding my request 17-1708

You claim that it would be possible to derive the current flows from the forecast flows and that the former are "highly commercially sensitive". This claim of course has to be judged against the wider public interest of understanding both the existing and forecast flows to see if the latter are at all plausible. I welcome your internal review regarding this matter.

There are several reasons why your argument that it would be possible to derive current data is not valid.
These include :-
- HS2 has stations which do not currently exist and therefore the forecast trips will have multiple sources.
- HS2 will only abstract a proportion of passengers from station pairs on parallel routes.
- some forecast flows will abstract journeys from several routes e.g. London-Birmingham, where there are two routes. It would not be possible to work out how many passengers would be abstracted from each route.
- some routes are served by several TOCs so it would not be possible to allocate abstractions to individual TOCs.

HS2 has presumably spent many tens of thousands of pounds on consultants in order to derive the forecasts. The consultants have used multiple techniques and numerous assumptions. The process also involves the use of the rail industry's Passenger Demand Forecasting Model (PDFM) which is not in the public domain. The documentation suggests that the modelling process is an extremely complicated, multi-stage process, which has gone through several iterations. It is therefore seems ridiculous to suggest that this process could be reverse engineered, even if many of the assumptions were known. It is therefore not a valid reason to withhold your forecasts of the station to station flows that I requested.

Can you confirm that the information in para 3.2.11 was derived from an early version of the PFM? The paragraph actually states "In 2010 there were approximately 62,000 long distance passengers per day using inter-city trains on the southern section of the WCML." This wording would appear to suggest that it is based on actual data rather than modelled output. The value of 62,000 also appears in Fig 3.3 which has a note "Virgin West trains only". If it was derived from the PRM what version was this and when was it produced?

I note in passing that Table 3.1 lists modelled zone to zone movements from four locations on the WCML to Central London. These are Birmingham (7500), Manchester (7000), Liverpool (2900) and Glasgow (1300). These are the main destinations that would be served by the HS2 (west leg) and they total 18,700. This is only 30% of the 62,000 figure above.

Yours sincerely,

J Marriott

HS2Enquiries, High Speed Two (HS2) Limited

1 Attachment

Morning Mr Marriott

 

Thank you for your email to HS2.

 

I have passed your email onto the FOI team as requested.

 

Kind Regards

 

 

Sheila Robinson | Helpdesk | HS2 Ltd

Tel: 020 7944 4908 | [1][email address] | [2]Facebook | [3]Twitter
| [4]LinkedIn

High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, 2 Snowhill, Queensway, Birmingham, B4 6GA |
[5]www.gov.uk/hs2

[6]cid:image001.png@01D185EE.09244E60

 

 

 

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