Cost estimate for the GDF
Dear Nuclear Decommissioning Authority,
The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority’s annual report for 2020/21 published in July 2021 estimates the liability for the GDF falling on NDA as £10592 million. In the first annual report of Nuclear Waste Services (NWS), a subsidiary of NDA, published in February 2022, NWS states:
‘At this early stage, the total whole life cost of the programme, including the design, construction, operation, and closure of a GDF up to 150 years from now, is estimated to be in the region of £20-£53 billion.’
There is no further information in the NDA report as to what the estimate of £10592m covers. Was it the entire cost of the GDF or just NDA’s share? What is the relationship between the three estimates, £10592m, £12bn and £20-53bn? How will this revised estimate range be translated into NDA’s estimated total liabilities?
Yours faithfully,
Stephen Thomas
OFFICIAL
Case Ref: 20220761
Your request for information regarding ".estimates the liability for the GDF falling on NDA..." was received on 2 March and is being dealt with under the terms of the Freedom of Information Act 2000.
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Regards
Judith Griffin
Information Access Manager
Nuclear Decommissioning Authority
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OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Thomas
See set out below responses to your queries -
Q. There is no further information in the NDA report as to what the estimate of £10592m covers. Was it the entire cost of the GDF or just NDA's share?
A. The NDA nuclear provision is restricted to the NDA's own obligations and liabilities. The GDF line in the provision therefore covers only the proportion of the cost of the GDF which is attributable to NDA-owned wastes and materials, for which NDA has the financial liability.
Q. What is the relationship between the three estimates, £10592m, £12bn and £20-53bn? How will this revised estimate range be translated into NDA's estimated total liabilities?
A. The overall cost of the GDF as quoted covers the costs of all wastes which are expected to be disposed of, including NDA-owned wastes, those wastes which are currently the liability of other waste producers, and those expected to arise in future from potential new nuclear sites. The range quoted of £20-53 billion allows for the potential uncertainties in the cost of building and operating the GDF. In its nuclear provision the NDA publishes a "single point" estimate, and separately discloses the uncertainty range in the notes to the accounts.
We trust that the above has provided you with the necessary information to understand the authority's approach.
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Information Commissioner's Office, Wycliffe House, Water Lane, Wilmslow, Cheshire, SK9 5AF
Regards
Judith Griffin
Information Access Manager
Nuclear Decommissioning Authority
We work flexibly - so whilst it suits me to email now, I do not expect any response or action outside of your own working pattern. My working pattern is Tue - Thur, 8:30m - 16:30
T: 01925 80 2077
E: [email address]
W: http://www.nda.gov.uk
This message and any attachment is intended solely for the addressee and may contain confidential or legally privileged information. If you have received this message in error, please send it back to us, and immediately and permanently delete it. Do not use, copy or disclose the information contained in this message or in any attachment.
Please consider the environment before printing this email.
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OFFICIAL
Dear Nuclear Decommissioning Authority,
Please pass this on to the person who conducts Freedom of Information reviews.
I am writing to request an internal review of Nuclear Decommissioning Authority's handling of my FOI request 'Cost estimate for the GDF'.
In your reply to my first question, you state that the figure of £10,657m in the 2020/21 annual report and accounts of NDA published in July 2021, represented the NDA’s share of the total estimated cost of the GDF and this is a useful clarification.
The GDF annual report was published in February 2022, 7 months after the NDA annual report so it seems fair to assume it is at least as up to date as the NDA figure and perhaps an update. The GDF report states the ‘previously published estimate’ for the total cost of the GDF was ‘in the region of £12bn’. The new estimate was ‘in the region of £20-£53bn’. I assume this estimate is for the total cost, not just NDA’s share. My question, which you have not answered, was: what is the relationship between £10,657m, £12bn and £20-53bn? To be explicit: Is £10,657m NDA’s share of £12bn or £20bn or £53bn or some other figure and if it is another figure, what is that figure and where is this published?
In your answer you refer to the uncertainty range given in the notes to the accounts. I have found the notes to the accounts for 2019/20 in an Appendix entitled ‘Nuclear Provision’ which says: ‘The NDA estimates the total costs associated with the undiscounted nuclear provision to be within a potential range from £115 billion to £246 billion.’ I have been unable to find the equivalent statement for 2020/21. Can you supply this range and point me to where it is published?
I asked: ‘How will this revised estimate range be translated into NDA's estimated total liabilities?’ If the figure of £10,657m is NDA’s share of £12bn, which was, according to NWS, ‘a lower-end single-point estimate’, it would appear there was no uncertainty range explicitly for the GDF attached to the total NDA cost range. Hence my questions: Will the very large increase in the estimated cost of the GDF be reflected in a significant increase in the estimated total liability of NDA? What figure will the NDA liability be based on, £20bn, £53bn or some other figure? Given that there is now a very wide range of uncertainty about the cost of the GDF, will this be reflected in the next NDA annual report and accounts in an increase in the range of uncertainty?
Clearly I don’t expect you to pre-empt the exact figures that will go in the next NDA Annual Report & Accounts but it should be possible to give some qualitative indications on these questions.
A full history of my FOI request and all correspondence is available on the Internet at this address: https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/c...
Yours faithfully,
Stephen Thomas
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Thomas
For clarification the Freedom of Information Act provides access to recorded information held, it doesn't oblige Public Authorities to answer questions. We have endeavoured to answer your questions, as "enquiries" and are happy to further clarify matters if we can, but strictly speaking you are not making a valid FoIA request. Internal reviews are usually complaints re. how FoIA requests have been handled or exemptions applied - they are carried out by our compliance team.
As you are making further queries and asking for clarification, re. our previous response, I have asked the Finance team for some additional input which when I have it I will forward to you.
However, if you do want this handled as a complaint I can forward to Compliance for review?
Regards
Judith Griffin
Information Access Manager
Nuclear Decommissioning Authority
We work flexibly - so whilst it suits me to email now, I do not expect any response or action outside of your own working pattern. My working pattern is Tue - Thur, 8:30m - 16:30
T: 01925 80 2077
E: [email address]
W: http://www.nda.gov.uk
This message and any attachment is intended solely for the addressee and may contain confidential or legally privileged information. If you have received this message in error, please send it back to us, and immediately and permanently delete it. Do not use, copy or disclose the information contained in this message or in any attachment.
Please consider the environment before printing this email.
If you have a general enquiry or wish to make a request under the Freedom of Information Act or Environmental Information Regulations, please phone 01925 802077 or email [email address].
OFFICIAL
OFFICIAL
Dear Mr Thomas
As discussed see responses to your queries set out below -
The GDF annual report was published in February 2022, 7 months after the NDA annual report so it seems fair to assume it is at least as up to date as the NDA figure and perhaps an update. The GDF report states the 'previously published estimate' for the total cost of the GDF was 'in the region of £12bn'. The new estimate was 'in the region of £20-£53bn'. I assume this estimate is for the total cost, not just NDA's share.
Response - the £20-53bn is the total cost.
My question, which you have not answered, was: what is the relationship between £10,657m, £12bn and £20-53bn? To be explicit: Is £10,657m NDA's share of £12bn or £20bn or £53bn or some other figure and if it is another figure, what is that figure and where is this published?
Response - the £20-53bn can be broken down as follows:
Legacy waste £12.1-32.2Bn of which HMG (NDA and MOD) £10.2-27.3Bn
Nuclear Liabilities Fund £1.9-4.9Bn
Nuclear Materials £1.5-3.6Bn
Nuclear new Build £6.7-17.2Bn
Total £20.3-53.3Bn
The £10,657m is NDA's share of the c. £12 billion base estimate for Legacy Waste (there will be some differences due to discounting and inflation which cause this to be higher than the £10.2 billion shown above), which is turn is part of the £20 billion base estimate for the entire GDF (which includes all of the non NDA liabilities). £53 billion is the upper end of the range expressed in the business case for the entire GDF.
In your answer you refer to the uncertainty range given in the notes to the accounts. I have found the notes to the accounts for 2019/20 in an Appendix entitled 'Nuclear Provision' which says: 'The NDA estimates the total costs associated with the undiscounted nuclear provision to be within a potential range from £115 billion to £246 billion.' I have been unable to find the equivalent statement for 2020/21. Can you supply this range and point me to where it is published?
Response - the uncertainty range is disclosed for each segment of the nuclear provision on page 155 of the 2020/21 annual report and accounts. In note 24, the sensitivity figures for the Waste segment (of which NDA's share of the liabilities associated with the GDF is the major part) show a potential increase of up to £25,360m and a potential decrease of up to £3,768m. These sensitivities are further explained in the text below the table.
I asked: 'How will this revised estimate range be translated into NDA's estimated total liabilities?' If the figure of £10,657m is NDA's share of £12bn, which was, according to NWS, 'a lower-end single-point estimate', it would appear there was no uncertainty range explicitly for the GDF attached to the total NDA cost range. Hence my questions: Will the very large increase in the estimated cost of the GDF be reflected in a significant increase in the estimated total liability of NDA? What figure will the NDA liability be based on, £20bn, £53bn or some other figure? Given that there is now a very wide range of uncertainty about the cost of the GDF, will this be reflected in the next NDA annual report and accounts in an increase in the range of uncertainty?
Clearly I don't expect you to pre-empt the exact figures that will go in the next NDA Annual Report & Accounts but it should be possible to give some qualitative indications on these questions.
Response - we can't yet comment on the figures that will be included in the 2021/22 annual report and accounts. However the increase in the estimate is driven largely by the addition of non-NDA liabilities to the scope of the GDF, and not necessarily by a proportionate increase in the NDA's own share of liabilities.
I hope that this additional information is helpful.
Regards
Judith Griffin
Information Access Manager
Nuclear Decommissioning Authority
We work flexibly - so whilst it suits me to email now, I do not expect any response or action outside of your own working pattern. My working pattern is Tue - Thur, 8:30m - 16:30
T: 01925 80 2077
E: [email address]
W: http://www.nda.gov.uk
This message and any attachment is intended solely for the addressee and may contain confidential or legally privileged information. If you have received this message in error, please send it back to us, and immediately and permanently delete it. Do not use, copy or disclose the information contained in this message or in any attachment.
Please consider the environment before printing this email.
If you have a general enquiry or wish to make a request under the Freedom of Information Act or Environmental Information Regulations, please phone 01925 802077 or email [email address].
OFFICIAL
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