Brexit impact assessment

Sarah Richens made this Freedom of Information request to Northamptonshire County Council

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Northamptonshire County Council did not have the information requested.

Dear Northamptonshire County Council,

I wish to make a freedom of information request about any impact assessments Northampton CC has done on the effects of Brexit on Northampton’s economy and public services. Firstly has the council done any? If not, why not? Surely as Daventry MP Chris Heaton-Harris is an undersecretary for DExEU and a long time advocate of leaving the EU, Northampton CC should be the first council to find the economic benefits of leaving the EU? I shall be making the same request from Daventry District council as well.
In particular I was hoping to see a risk assessment on what No Deal would mean for Northampton since that seems to be the most likely outcome of negotiations currently but I would also like to see any assessment of a Chequers style deal and a Canada-style FTA that Mr. Heaton-Harris’s friends at the ERG (Mr. Heaton Harris is an ex-ERG chairman) are advocating for.
If there is any fee attached to this request please do let me know and I will consider whether or not I can afford to pay it.

Yours faithfully,

Sarah Richens
A Moulton Resident on a zero hour contract on just above minimum wage (no I am not an elite.)

Freedom of Information,

1 Attachment

Dear Ms Richens,


Thank you for your email.


I have been advised that there is no information held or recorded by NCC
matching the criteria and parameters of your request.


However, in an effort to assist you, I have included below analysis that
has been carried out by the council in relation to the potential impact of


Please find below an analysis of the potential impact the Brexit
discussions will have on NCC, the county economy and wider national


Main findings:


o The current reliance on EU nationals within the adult social care
workforce is significant and is estimated to be above average in
Northamptonshire at 9% versus a 7% England average.
o In Northamptonshire, the turnover rate of directly employed staff in
2015/16 (latest) is estimated by Skills for Care at 32.2%, (approx.
6,400 leavers per year), above the regional (27.5%) and England
(27.3%) averages. It is also estimated that approximately 4,200 people
from the adult social care workforce may retire in the next 10 years


o According to the latest data (year to end June 2015)
Northamptonshire’s Short Term International Migration (STIM) rate
equated to 3.5 migrants per 1000 resident population, more than the
England average rate of 2.8 migrants /1000 pop.


o Amongst the boroughs and districts, Northampton registered the highest
rate of STIM, with 7.7/1000 resident population.


o The latest data (year to end of March 2017) shows that the proportion
of National Insurance Numbers allocated to EU nationals (showing EU
migrants’ entry into the labour market) within Northamptonshire is
significantly higher than the England average (89.9% to EU nationals -
albeit approximately 1% lower than a year previously - versus a 75.5%
England average). This suggests that EU nationals feature highly
within the county’s migrant workforce.


o In Northamptonshire, the proportion of vacancies which are hard to
fill is 40.7%, which is a higher proportion than the 32.9% across
England as a whole.


o Northamptonshire is placed in the top quartile for three Standard
Occupation Classification groups when the hard to fill vacancy
densities of all the 152 English LEAs are ranked (Managers, Elementary
Staff, and Sales & Customer Service Staff).


o Overall, 28.3% of the county’s vacancies were considered to be skills
shortage vacancies (vacant due to a lack of skilled applicants) in
2015, which compares unfavourably with the England average of 22.6%.


o It is estimated that Northamptonshire has an above average proportion
of employment in 3 of the top 5 sectors for employment of EU
nationals; Manufacturing, Admin and Support Services, Transport &
Storage. It is worth noting that Corby has one of the highest
proportions of manufacturing employment in England at an estimated 23%
of employment.


o It is estimated that Northamptonshire has an above average proportion
of employment in lower skilled occupations, which have the highest
proportions of (non-UK) EU nationals.


o Bearing in mind the higher than average proportion of National
Insurance Number allocations to (non-UK EU nationals), this suggests
that EU migrant labour is prevalent within the Northamptonshire work


Kind regards


Sarah Jobling

Senior Administrator

Freedom of Information/Data Protection Team

Business Intelligence and Project Management

Northamptonshire County Council


Tel: 01604 368360

[email address]






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Dear Freedom of Information,

Thank you for your response on this matter. Considering the high percentage of EU nationals in our workforce here in Northamptonshire I would have thought it behooves the council to understand exactly what impact Brexit is going to have on our public services like the NHS and social care. Considering we have 5 months to go and you have NO IDEA how this will impact Northamptonshire’s economy or most of its public services - in either or good or a bad way is to my mind negligent by the council. You already are having to make substantial cuts to services since you are effectively bankrupt what happens if you can’t even maintain critical social care needs due to a lack of EU carers for our elderly? You also state we have a high proportion of EU workers in manufacturing, if you can’t recruit enough manufacturing staff that will have an impact on Northampton’s productivity and a knock on effect on the local business economy. What will the impact of new Customs arrangements for local SME’s exporting into the EU have? Do you even know how many local SME’s DO export into the EU currently? This almost seems like ignorance is bliss or more accurately a dereliction of duty to fail to prepare or even understand what the impact will be to the county for what is to come. Does the council seriously think the best way forward is to do NOTHING and to plan for NOTHING? I’m shocked to be honest. Shall be making sure everyone I meet understands how unprepared Northampton is for Brexit when I go out and campaign for a Peoples Vote.
That said, thank you for responding with what little information that you could scrape together. I appreciate the time you have taken to try to answer my question, but the answer is shocking to be honest. I no longer feel safe that the council will be able to fulfill it’s duty of care to its residents in the event of no deal scenario or even a properly planned exit.

Yours sincerely,

Sarah Richens