Assessment of Risks of Civil War In the Event of a Liberal Democrat Victory in an Election

Ministry of Defence Police did not have the information requested.

Dear Ministry of Defence Police,

Please provide information to date on the assessments undertaken by Government of the risks of Civil War should there be a Liberal Democrat victory at the next election or a victory by any other party either in or not in coalition which will overturn Brexit?


1. What is the Government's assessment of the risk of Civil War in that event of that cliff plummet, how would it impact on the Government's ability to provide essentially services, especially health, and to what extent will it restrict freedom of movement in the UK? For example, will there be 1970s style Northern Ireland curfews on our streets and how many years would it need before liberty - and democracy - is re-attained?

2. To what extent does the Government consider that any popular uprising of many millions will require a military response from the Liberal Democrat or other similar Government? Would it, for example, be 10, 100 or 1,000 times the sort of response that the Conservative Government took against Miners in the early 1980s? Would it involve merely water cannon or a constant military presence with frequent use of tanks on our streets, in a warp of liberal ideology ?

3. If no such assessments have been undertaken, then would you please provide information on the plans to make such assessments. And would you also in your reply please place this in the historical context of the mid-late 1940s when Whitehall officially considered that there would be revolution in this country largely on account of starvation. A situation that was only saved following the Americans' refusal of Maynard Keynes's requests by a personal request from/intervention by Winston Churchill?

Would the new Liberal Democrat or other Government be more or less precarious than the Government of the mid-late 1940s which, by definition, would suggest a similar precariousness in the fabric of what used to be an establishment which was universally supportive and could be admired rather than utterly loathed by half the country?

Yours faithfully,

Jeremy Harrison

SPO EEUX-EU Exit Grp Mailbox (MULTIUSER), Ministry of Defence Police

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Dear Mr Harrison,


Please find attached our response to your recent enquiry.




EU Exit Secretariat


[1]cid:image001.png@01D3B416.44E365F0 EU Exit Secretariat | Security Policy
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Dear SPO EEUX-EU Exit Grp Mailbox (MULTIUSER),

Thank you for taking the time and trouble to consider my request.

You have confirmed that no information is held by the Government departments involved in the reply on the assessment of risks of civil war in the UK in the event of a Lib Dem victory at the next election which would ensure that the UK remains in the EU contrary to the result of the referendum.

Without further information. one inevitably is left to make rational assumptions for having been given no other choice. My rational assumption on the basis of what has not been able to be provided is that such a Government would in overturning the referendum result be entirely unprepared for civil war like unrest and that in terms of contingencies to safeguard the safety of all of the public it would be entirely starting from scratch.

That position would clearly not be acceptable to many who look to any Government to safeguard personal security and national security first and foremost. I am not aware of any dialogue from the party concerned about what it has in mind to safeguard the general public with its policy so I can only guess that it has very little idea and is in the realm of the downright irresponsible. Of course, I am happy to be proved wrong if they wish to comment with reassurances directly.

A mixture of sudden chaotic pandemonium and inevitable knee jerk entirely unplanned responsive clampdown will in my own assessment because I have at least made an effort to make an assessment would I assess lead to the collapse of what might be called "the western liberal brand" for eternity. It would have quickly lost around 65%-70% of public confidence. In some ways, that would be a blessing. In many other ways, it would be extremely sad.

But, anyhow, at least now we know. No information is held. I was incidentally at one time a Cabinet Office card carrier because of my work on risk management but I am more than happy to leave it to the young folk to decide what is for the best. At 56, I do fully recognise that I am so old now that I have absolutely nothing of experience to offer.

Yours sincerely - and my kindest regards,

Jeremy Harrison