7th Carbon Budget - Sensitivity Analysis

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David Turver
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Dear Committee on Climate Change,

The 7th Carbon Budget calls for 125GW of offshore wind to be deployed by 2050. Such a large capacity will require both fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind generators. You estimate the cost of offshore wind to be £38/MWh (2023 prices) in 2030. However, fixed bottom offshore wind cost more than twice that £82/MWh (2024 prices) in AR6 and floating offshore cost £195/MWh. Floating offshore wind is being offered £246/MWh in AR7, some 6.5 times your estimate. I would like to ask if you have conducted a sensitivity analysis of the impact on your overall estimates of capex, opex and low-carbon technology take up rates if the cost of renewables remains at the AR6/AR7 level rather than your assumed costs and if so, can you release it please?

Yours faithfully,

David Turver

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Enquiries, (CCC), Committee on Climate Change

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Dear David,

Please find attached our response to your request.

Kind regards,

Climate Change Committee

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