This is an HTML version of an attachment to the Freedom of Information request 'Projected Demand - Baytree School 2021 - 2022'.

Date: 11 January 2021   
Our ref: 
Contact: Christine Coomber 
Direct dial: 01934 888 829 
R Tozer
People and Communities - Information requests 
By email
 North Somerset Council 
 Town Hall 
BS23 1UJ 
DX 744900 Clevedon 
Dear R Tozer
Freedom of Information Act 2000
Thank you for your Freedom of Information request in which you asked for the data, sources of 
information and other methodology detail that we have used to project the demand on Baytree School 
as illustrated in the bar chart included within our reply reference 3051555.
Historically, North Somerset has been well below national and regional averages in the incidence of 
EHCPs in the 0 – 25 aged population.
Source:  Analysis of DfE statistics (Education, Health and Care Plans: England 2020) and ONS 
population estimates.  Actual percentages are shown for England and North Somerset.
The North Somerset consensus is that the authority is experiencing upward pressure in the number of 
requests for EHCPs and is going to start approaching the national average.  Therefore, the size of the 
cohort of EHCP students in North Somerset was projected by applying a projected national average 
incidence of EHCPs in the population (ONS estimates) and assuming growth of 0.1% per year.

Source: Department for Education, Education, health and Care Plans: England 2020 (published 
7 May 2020) (underlying data) and North Somerset projected numbers
The projected numbers were then cross-checked against estimates independently made by the 
Education Funding Team and the SEND Team.  Both predictions of the size of the EHCP cohort 
corresponded by 2022, the only difference being the annual rate of increase between 2020 and 2022.
To estimate the primary need makeup of the future cohorts, 2015-2019 SEN2 census data was used 
to calculate the average relative incidence of each primary need type in the EHCP cohort.  These 
ratios were then adjusted to account for expected changes in the need makeup of future cohorts (i.e. 
ASD/SLCN and SEMH rising at faster rates than most other needs).
Provision type ratios were calculated for each primary need category using the same census data, with 
the caveat that these ratios are expected to change in the future as the availability of different 
provision types changes.
These ratios were then applied to the projected overall number of pupils in North Somerset to give a 
number of EHCPs and primary need type.
The final step was to allocate the types of need to type of provision, which was done in conjunction 
with the SEND Team, who have in-depth understanding of the individual children and expertise in 
special needs.  This was how the demand for Baytree School was projected.
A summary of the data sources used is:
• SEN2 Census
• DfE statistics (Education, Health and Care Plans: England 2020)
• ONS population estimates

• North Somerset Pupil Projections -

North Somerset Council now considers that it has complied with your request.  However, you have a 
right to appeal if you are dissatisfied with our response.  Requests for an internal review must be made 
in writing, and within 40 working days of this response being issued to you.  When requesting an 
internal review, please include your reference number, the date of your original request and your 
contact details.  Please also include an explanation of why you are dissatisfied with our response.  
Requests for an internal review should be sent to
If you are not content with the outcome of the internal review, you have the right to apply directly to the 
Information Commissioner for a decision. The Information Commissioner can be contacted at: 
The Information Commissioner's Office, Wycliffe House, Water Lane, Wilmslow, Cheshire, SK9 5AF. 
Phone: 0303 123 1113 
I will now close your request as of this date.
Yours faithfully
Christine Coomber
Christine Coomber 
Directorate Governance Co-ordinator