UK Construction Inflation
2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the
past 5 years
June 2015
Norfolk County Council
UK Construction Inflation
2010 to 2015
355975
EUP
WAT
01
03
10 June 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the
UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
past 5 years
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
June 2015
Norfolk County Council
County Hall
Martineau Lane
Norwich
Norfolk
NR1 2DH
Franklin + Andrews, 1st Floor, East Wing, 69-75 Thorpe Road, Norwich NR1 1UA, United Kingdom
T +44 (0)1603 226780 F +44 (0)1603 619365 W www.franklinandrews.com
UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
Issue and revision record
Revision
Date
Originator
Checker
Approver
Description
Standard
01
07/05/15
R. Tyler /
S. Wenham /
K. Horton /
Draft v1
K. Horton
A. Symonds
M. Frith
02
08/06/15
K. Horton
A. Symonds
M. Frith
Draft v2 (with new section added)
03
10/06/15
K. Horton
A. Symonds/
M. Frith
Final version for Client review
S. Wenham
This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and
We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this
for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project
document being relied upon by any other party, or being used
only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for
for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission
any other purpose.
which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by
other parties.
This document contains confidential information and proprietary
intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties
without consent from us and from the party which
commissioned it.
355975/EUP/WAT/01/03 10 June 2015
UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
Contents
Chapter Title
Page
1
Introduction
1
2
Construction Inflation
2
2.1
UK ______________________________________________________________________________ 2
2.2
East of England ____________________________________________________________________ 3
2.3
UK Resources _____________________________________________________________________ 4
3
Road Construction Inflation
6
3.1
UK ______________________________________________________________________________ 6
3.2
Road Construction Resources _________________________________________________________ 7
4
NNDR “Project” Cost Index
9
4.1
Methodology _______________________________________________________________________ 9
4.1.1
Index “Basket of Goods” ______________________________________________________________ 9
4.1.2
Index Population ___________________________________________________________________ 10
4.2
Results __________________________________________________________________________ 10
5
Conclusion
13
Appendices
14
Appendix A. NNDR Inflation Dashboard ___________________________________________________________ 15
355975/EUP/WAT/01/03 10 June 2015
UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
1 Introduction
Franklin + Andrews were commissioned by Norfolk County Council (NCC) to provide a commentary on the
inflationary movement of construction costs over the past five years and, in particular, on road construction
projects.
We will report how construction inflation has moved between 2010 and 2015 for the UK, East Anglia (East
of England) and road construction. We will then report how some of the key resources used on road
construction projects have changed.
To support our analysis, our study has called upon data sourced from UK statistical organisations including
the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Building Cost Information Service (BCIS).
It should be noted that when discussing different statistics in this report, we have made reference to both
“Cost” and “Price” indices. To clarify, a “Cost” index reflects changes to input costs to the contractor, e.g.
labour, materials and plant. A “Price” index represents the change in price to the end-user, i.e. the Client,
therefore a price index will include the contractor input costs plus the associated overhead and profit
margin.
355975/EUP/WAT/01/03 10 June 2015
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
2 Construction Inflation
Within the UK there are a host of indices that measure inflation across different types of construction and
at various levels. Within this section, we will review how UK construction inflation has performed and also
how inflation has changed within East of England between 2010 and 2015. In addition, at UK level only,
we will review how resources costs have moved over the same period.
2.1
UK
For UK construction we have focused our attention on general construction and civil engineering and have
therefore selected the following indices for comparison:
For general construction we have utilised the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index (TPI) which comprises of
tendered project data sourced from all types of facilities; including schools, residential and commercial
offices.
For civil engineering we have identified the BCIS Civil Engineering TPI which models changes in the
prices of tendered contracts for civil engineering projects. It is does however exclude specialist
engineering works included in infrastructure projects.
Figure 2.1 below displays the performance of the two indices over the past five years (note; for comparison
reasons, both indices have been rebased to 1Q2010 = 100).
Figure 2.1: Index comparison 1Q2010 to 1Q2015
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As highlighted in figure 2.1 above, civil engineering tender prices have outstripped general construction
prices throughout the analysis period.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
If we consider the total inflation between the two indices from 1Q2010 to 1Q2015, the following figures
have been achieved:
BCIS All-in TPI
+23.4%
BCIS Civil Engineering TPI
+30.5%
To put this into context, if you had a construction project with an estimated cost of £50 million in 1Q2010,
that estimate would increase to £61.7 million (+£11.7 million) based on the All-in TPI and £65.3 million
(+£15.3 million) using the Civil Engineering TPI at 1Q2015. Whilst the inflationary difference is circa 7%
between the two indices, the Civil Engineering TPI has increased the total estimate cost by almost a third.
2.2
East of England
For the East of England region, we are limited as to the number of available indices to draw reference to
therefore we can only focus on the BCIS Regional TPI for the East of England. The Regional TPI is a
derived index that utilises project data from the BCIS National All-in TPI and, as a consequence, will only
represent the general construction environment.
Figure 2.2 below displays the performance of the two indices over the past five years (note; for comparison
reasons, both indices have been rebased to 1Q2010 = 100).
Figure 2.2: Index comparison 1Q2010 to 1Q2015
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As highlighted in figure 2.2 above, tender prices in the East of England have marginally outperformed
national tender prices throughout the analysis period.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
If we consider the total inflation between the two indices from 1Q2010 to 1Q2015, the following figures
would be achieved:
BCIS All-in TPI
+23.4%
BCIS Regional TPI: East of England
+27.6%
To put this into context, if you had a construction project with an estimated cost of £50 million in 1Q2010,
that estimate would increase to £61.7 million (+£11.7 million) based on the All-in TPI and £63.8 million
(+£13.8 million) using the East of England Regional TPI at 1Q2015. Whilst the inflationary difference is
circa 4% between the indices, the Regional TPI has increased the total estimate cost by over a quarter.
2.3
UK Resources
Whilst identifying what inflation is witnessed at a high level, it is also worth understanding what price
pressure could be underpinning any upward or downward trend. To support this, the analysis now focuses
on inflation at resource level (i.e. labour, materials and plant) and for this we are limited to input cost
indices for the UK as a whole.
For the study we have utilised the BCIS Cost Indices for Labour, Materials and Plant. Figure 2.3 below
displays the performance of the three indices over the past five years.
Figure 2.3: Index comparison 1Q2010 to 1Q2015
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As highlighted in figure 2.3 above, input costs have generally increased throughout the analysis period.
However, other than labour costs, both material and plant costs have either stagnated or, in recent
quarters, actually decreased.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
If we consider the total inflation between the three indices from 1Q2010 to 1Q2015, the following figures
would be achieved:
BCIS Labour Cost Index
+9.5%
BCIS Materials Cost Index
+11.0%
BCIS Plant Cost Index
+3.2%
If we removed the obvious impact of the recent reduction in fuel prices from the plant cost index then a
figure around +11% would be recorded. That said the general increase witnessed across input costs is
considerably below the results being recorded within the tender price statistics.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
3 Road Construction Inflation
Within this section, we will review how UK road construction inflation has performed between 2010 and
2015. In addition, we will review how some of the key resources items used within road construction
projects have moved over the same period.
3.1
UK
For UK construction we have focused our attention on statistics that measure changes in road construction
costs and have therefore selected the Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS) ROADCON TPI
for analysis.
The BIS ROADCON TPI (formerly known as the BIS Tender Price Index of Road Construction) measures
the movement of prices in tenders for road construction contracts in England, Scotland and Wales. It
includes road contracts for New Construction, Motorway Widening and Major Maintenance schemes
costing over £100,000. The index is now updated and maintained by the BCIS.
Figure 3.1 below displays the performance of the ROADCON TPI against the All-in TPI and the Civil
Engineering TPI over the past five years (note; for comparison reasons, the indices have been rebased to
1Q2010 = 100).
Figure 3.1: Index comparison 1Q2010 to 1Q2015
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BCIS All-in TPI
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As displayed by figure 3.1 above, tender prices within the UK road construction sector have surpassed the
level experienced within the general construction and civil engineering markets.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
If we consider the total inflation between the three indices from 1Q2010 to 1Q2015, the following figures
would be achieved:
BCIS All-in TPI
+23.4%
BCIS Civil Engineering TPI
+30.5%
BIS ROADCON TPI
+36.3%
Using the same scenario referenced in section two of the report, based on a construction project with an
estimated cost of £50 million in 1Q2010, that estimate in 1Q2015 would increase to:
£61.7 million (+£11.7 million) based on the All-in TPI
£65.3 million (+£15.3 million) using the Civil Engineering TPI
£68.2 million (+£18.2 million) using the ROADCON TPI
As can be scene above, using the inflation adjustment for ROADCON TPI would increase the total
estimate cost by over a third.
It should be noted that there is a formula available as part of the ROADCON TPI which allows the user to
adjust the index to suit specific project type (e.g. new roads, motorway widening, etc.), tender/estimate
value and location. Unfortunately, the limited sample for projects within the East of England means that no
adjustment factors are available to enable us to adjust the headline index.
3.2
Road Construction Resources
As highlighted in section 3.1 above, road construction tender price inflation has increased significantly over
the past five years.
To try to understand what resources may be driving the inflation within the sector, we have identified some
of the key items used, namely:
Labour & supervision
Plant & road vehicles (operatives and fuel are not included)
Aggregates
Ready Mixed Concrete
Plastic products
Coated macadam & bituminous products
DERV Fuel
Timber
Steel for Reinforcement
For each item above, we have sourced an input cost index from the BIS Price Adjustment Formulae
Indices (PAFI) for civil engineering contracts (formerly known as BAXTER Indices). These are monthly
indices that are updated and maintained by the BCIS.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
Table 3.1 below displays the inflation experienced by each resource between 1Q2010 and 1Q2015.
Table 3.1:
Index comparison 1Q2010 to 1Q2015
BIS Code
BIS Index Name
Inflation %
90/ 1
Labour & supervision
8.1%
90/ 2
Plant & road vehicles
6.8%
90/ 3
Aggregates
8.1%
90/ 6
Ready Mixed Concrete
17.5%
90/ 8
Plastic products
16.3%
90/ 9
Coated macadam & bituminous products
19.2%
90/ 10
DERV fuel
8.3%
90/ 12
Timber
14.2%
90/ 13
Steel for reinforcement
18.5%
Source: BCIS online [accessed 08/05/15]
Table 3.1 depicts the inflation that has occurred between two points in time (i.e. 2010 and 2015) and there
have been notable increases in key materials such as steel reinforcement, tarmac and ready mixed
concrete. That said, during the past five years it is worth drawing reference to a significant “spike” that
occurred with both fuel and steel indices during early 2012.
If the indices for DERV fuel and steel for reinforcement were calculated between 2010 and 2012, then
increases of +27% and +40% would have been recorded. Since 2012 prices materials, particularly those
linked to oil prices, have been on a downward trend. It is only labour costs that have continued to rise
consistently, albeit not quickly, throughout.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
4 NNDR “Project” Cost Index
In order to try to understand the more localised inflation between 2010 and 2015, in this section of the
report the focus is on the Norwich Northern Distributer Road (NNDR) project and the development of a
bespoke index.
4.1
Methodology
To calculate the potential inflation specific to the NNDR project, we needed to understand the composition
of the project, i.e. where is the money to be spent. This information would underpin the index as it would
ensure any associated cost drivers are taken into account.
4.1.1
Index “Basket of Goods”
To support our analysis, we were provided with a NNDR project breakdown based on a budget estimate
dated 1Q2013. Table 4.1 below depicts the project breakdown along with the percentage each section has
in respect of the total cost (note, the estimated total cost excluded risk and the Contractor’s fee).
Each section of the estimate is used to develop the index “Basket of Goods”. In essence a “Basket of
Goods” is a list of goods and services that are procured as part of the project, for example, within the Retail
Price Index “Basket of Goods” are items such as bread, milk, iPads, etc.
Table 4.1:
NNDR Budget Estimate 2013
% of Total
Section
Construction heading
Cost
Roadworks
64.64
Series 200
Site Clearance
1.37
Series 300
Fencing
1.09
Series 400
Safety Fencing
1.30
Series 500
Drainage
7.94
Series 600
Earthworks
14.55
Series 700
Pavements
29.72
Series 1100
Kerbs and Paved Areas
2.04
Series 1200
Road Signs
0.14
Series 1200
Road Markings
0.25
Series 2700
Stats and Accommodation Works
1.64
Series 3000
Landscaping
2.46
Series 3000
Environmental
1.44
Series 3000
Archaeology
0.72
Provisional Sums
0.42
Structures
11.42
Prelims
23.52
Total (excluding risk and Contractor fee)
100.00
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
4.1.2
Index Population
With a defined Basket of Goods in place, the next step was to populate each item with data from 2009 to
2015 (present day). In an ideal situation, the best form of cost data to use to populate the index would
have been obtained by surveying the supply chain (market) for each unique section of work. In reality, this
information would have been difficult to obtain given the limited time available to conduct this inflation
review.
The alternative approach, and one that is widely used throughout industry, is to review each section and
select a published national index that offers the most representative match to the item of work, e.g. a
concrete index for a concrete item. The review focused on organisations and industry index publishers
including the ONS and the BCIS. All indices that have been included within the project index are
categorised as Cost Indices due mainly to level in which indices needed to be allocated.
4.2
Results
Figure 4.1 below displays the performance of the NNDR Project Cost Index over the past five years (all
indices have been rebased to 1Q2010 = 100).
Figure 4.1: NNDR Project Cost Index 1Q2010 to 1Q2015
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Project Cost Index
110
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90
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As displayed by figure 4.1 above, the NNDR “Project” Cost Index increased at a relatively stable rate from
2010 with a definite contraction over the second half of 2014. The index is heavily influenced by the
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
performance of oil-based products and fuel (used within the road and plant vehicles) which, as discussed
in section 3.2 of this report, were affected by the decline in the price of oil.
If we consider the total inflation between 1Q2010 to 1Q2015, the following figures would be achieved:
NNDR “Project” Cost Index +10.2%
In Appendix A of the report, we have produced an NNDR Inflation Dashboard which has further details on
the NNDR Project Cost Index.
It is important to note that the index that has been developed for the NNDR project, is a “Cost” index, i.e. it
reflects the input costs less the contractor’s overhead and profit. To be able to compare the index to
“Price” indices that have been referenced earlier in the report then it is plausible to add a “Market
Conditions Factor (MCF)”. A MCF is in essence a factor to reflect the tendering climate and is calculated
by dividing a Price index by a Cost index. Figure 4.2 below highlights the significant impact that the
addition of a MCF has on the NNDR Project Cost Index.
Figure 4.2: NNDR Indices – Cost versus Price
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Project Index (inc. MCF)
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For the purpose of comparison only, we have utilised the BCIS MCF for Civil Engineering and applied this
to the NNDR Project Cost Index to derive a NNDR Project Price Index. The result has been compared to
the BIS Road Construction Tender Price Index in figure 4.3 below:
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
Figure 4.3: Index Comparison (1Q2010 to 1Q2015)
140
Project Index (inc. MCF)
135
BCIS Civil Engineering TPI
BIS ROADCON TPI
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125
120
)
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1
= 115
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se
a
(B 105
ex
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95
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Year
If we consider the total inflation between the three indices from 1Q2010 to 1Q2015, the following figures
would be achieved:
Derived NNDR Project Price Index +26.6%
BCIS Civil Engineering TPI
+30.5%
BIS ROADCON TPI
+36.3%
Whilst the addition of a MCF to the NNDR Cost Index has a profound impact on the overall inflation result
(i.e. from 10.2% to 26.6%), the actual inflation witnessed is still notably below that recorded by, say, the
BIS ROADCON TPI.
Going forward we expect a level of construction inflation that will be ahead of the general rate of inflation
over the next 12 months.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
5 Conclusion
Our report has identified that construction tender price inflation within the UK has increased significantly
between 2010 and 2015. Within the road construction sector, tender prices have outstripped construction
and civil engineering in general with inflation recorded above 36% for the analysis period.
With tender prices inflating at a significant pace, it would be logical to expect that rising input costs would
be at the heart of the increase. However our analysis of resource items has suggested that inflation at
resource level has been considerably below tender prices throughout the analysis period. This would
therefore suggest that the bulk of differential between costs and tender prices would be as a consequence
of increased overhead and margin recovery by the contractors.
The development of a bespoke NNDR Index has highlighted the inflation profile more akin to the project
and the associated cost drivers. The results indicated that historically, inflation has been below that
recorded by published indices, both in terms of Costs and Prices. The outlook for the next 12 months does,
however, suggest that inflation for the project could be above the general rate of inflation in the UK.
It should be noted that this study provides an indicative view of the changes in construction costs and
prices, rather than a definitive answer.
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
Appendices
Appendix A. NNDR Inflation Dashboard ___________________________________________________________ 15
355975/EUP/WAT/01/03 10 June 2015
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UK Construction Inflation 2010 to 2015
An overview of construction inflation over the past 5 years
Appendix A. NNDR Inflation Dashboard
355975/EUP/WAT/01/03 10 June 2015
15
Franklin + Andrews Inflation Dashboard
NCC - NNDR INFLATION PROFILE
Inflation: Project Index
Impact on Nominal Project Cost (Base £100k in 2009)
Bespoke Index Weightings
£125,000,000
Structures,
116
Project Index
RPI
11.4%
Prelims,
£120,000,000
Provisional
Project Index
Sums, 0.4%
23.5%
£115,000,000
114
£110,000,000
112
£105,000,000
£100,000,000
110
)
0
£95,000,000
0
1
= 108
0
£90,000,000
Roadworks,
1
0
64.6%
2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Q
(1 106
x
e
d
In
Annual Inflation Figures (% change p.a.)
Inflation by Element (1Q10 to 1Q15)
104
6%
Inflation Suggested by Indices
Year
18%
5%
Project Index
Econometric Line
RPIProject Index
4%
16%
102
2009
tion
£100,000,000
£100,000,000
3%
2010
fla
£104,128,040
£104,620,964
14%
2%
2011
l In
£108,528,827
£110,037,436
a
1%
12%
2012
u
100
n
£111,563,138
£113,582,124
n
0%
2013
A
£112,640,847
£117,044,923
10%
-1%
2014
£114,021,622
£119,817,501
-2%
8%
2015
0
0 £10130,11471,44
1 61
2
2
2
2
3
3
3 #R
3 E4F!4
4
4
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
98
6%
2016
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
1
2 £13144,91042,49
3 94
1
2
3
4
1
2
3 #R
4 E1F!2
3
4
1
4%
Inflation using the Project Index
2%
0%
Index Values Table
Historically, between 1Q2010 and 1Q2015, the project index
s
s
s
s
k
m
re
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
has inflated by 10.2%.
or
u
lim
w
tu
l S
c
re
Project Index
100.7
104.0
108.9
111.8
113.2
114.2
d
a
P
oa
tru
S
All-Items Retail Price Index (RPI)
101.3
106.0
111.5
115.1
118.6
121.4
R
ision
rov
P
16