RISK QUANTIFICATION CRITERIA
Likelihood Definitions
Descriptor
Rare
Unlikely
Possible
Likely
Almost Certain
Can’t believe this event would
Not expected to happen, but
May occur occasionally, has
Strong possibility that this
This is expected to occur frequently / in
Likelihood
happen – will only happen in
definite potential exists –
happened before on occasions –
could occur – likely to
most circumstances – more likely to occur
exceptional circumstances
unlikely to occur
reasonable chance of occurring
occur
than not
Risk Matrix
Likelihood
Consequences / Impact
Negligible (1)
Minor (2)
Moderate (3)
Major (4)
Extreme (5)
Almost Certain
(5)
Medium
High
High
V High
V High
Likely
(4)
Medium
Medium
High
High
V High
Possible
(3)
Low
Medium
Medium
High
High
Unlikely
(2)
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Rare
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
(1)
Very High:
Senior Management Action to confirm the level of risk identified and produce an action plan to eliminate/reduce or transfer the risk
High:
Service Head Action to confirm the level of risk identified and produce an action plan to eliminate/reduce or transfer the risk
Medium:
Ward/Dept Head to confirm the level of risk identified and produce an action plan to eliminate/reduce or transfer the risk
Low:
Ward/Dept Head to confirm the level of risk identified and manage using routine procedures
Impact/Consequence Definitions
Descriptor
Negligible
Minor
Moderate
Major
Extreme
-Reduced quality patient
-Unsatisfactory patient experience/clinical
- Unsatisfactory patient experience/
-Unsatisfactory patient
-Unsatisfactory patient
Patient Experience
experience/clinical outcome
outcome directly related to care provision –
clinical outcome, short term effects –
experience /clinical outcome,
experience/clinical outcome,
not directly related to delivery
readily resolvable
expect recovery less than 1wk
long term effects - expect
continued ongoing long term
of clinical care
-Increased level of care/stay less
recovery over more than 1week
effects
than 7 days
- Increased level of care/stay
more than 7 -15 days
-Barely noticeable reduction in
- Minor reduction in scope/quality/ schedule
- Reduction in scope/quality/project
-Significant project over-run
-Inability to meet
Objectives/ Project
scope/quality/schedule
objectives or schedule
project/corporate objectives,
reputation of the organisation
seriously damaged
-Adverse event leading to
- Minor injury or illness, first aid treatment
- Agency reportable, e.g. Police
-Major injuries/long term
-Incident leading to death(s) or
Injury /illness
minor injury not requiring first
required
(violent and aggressive acts)
incapacity /disability (e.g. loss of
major permanent incapacity
(physical and
aid
- Up to 3 days staff absence
-Significant injury requiring medical
limb), requiring, medical
psychological) to
-No staff absence
treatment and/or counselling
treatment and/or counselling
patient/visitor/staff
-RIDDOR over 3-day absence due to
-RIDDOR over 3-day absence
injury/dangerous occurrences
due to major injury/dangerous
occurrences
- Locally resolved verbal
- Justified written complaint peripheral to
- Below excess claim.
- Claim above excess level.
-
-Multiple claims or single major
Complaints/Claims
complaint
clinical care
- Justified complaint involving lack of
- Multiple justified complaints
claim
appropriate care
- Complex Justified complaint
- Interruption in a service
- Short term disruption to service with minor
- Some disruption in service with
-Sustained loss of service which
- Permanent loss of core
Service/ Business
which does not impact on the
impact on patient care/service provision
unacceptable impact on patient care
has serious impact on delivery of
service/ facility
Interruption
delivery of patient care or the
-Temporary loss of ability to provide
patient care resulting in major
- Disruption to facility leading to
ability to continue to provide
service
contingency plans being invoked
significant “knock on” effect --
service
- Resources stretched
-Potentially impaired operating
-Inability to function
- Potentially impaired operating
capability
capability
-Temp service closure
-Pressure on service provision
- Short term low staffing level
- Ongoing low staffing level reduces service
- Late delivery of key objective/service
- Uncertain delivery of key
- Non-delivery of key objective/
Staffing and
temporarily reduces service
quality
/care due to lack of staff
objective/service/care due to
service/care due to lack of staff.
Competence
quality (less than 1 day)
- Minor error
due to lack of/ ineffective
- Moderate error due to lack of/
lack of staff
- Loss of key staff
- Short term low staffing level
training/ implementation of training
ineffective training/implementation of
- Major error due to lack of/
-Critical error due to lack of/
(>1 day), where there is no
training
ineffective
ineffective training/
disruption to patient care
- Ongoing problems with staffing
training/implementation of
implementation of training
levels
training
Financial (including
- Negligible organisational/
- Minor organisational/
- Significant organisational/personal
- Major organisational/personal
-Severe organisational financial
Damage/Loss/Theft/
personal financial loss up to
personal financial loss of £100k - £250K
financial loss of £250k - £500k
financial loss of £500k - £1m
loss of more than £1m
Fraud
£100k
- Small number of
-Recommendations made which can be
- Challenging recommendations that
-Enforcement/prohibition action
-Prosecution
Inspection/
recommendations which focus
addressed by low level of management
can be addressed with appropriate
-Low Rating
-Zero rating
Audit
on minor quality improvement
action
action plan
- Critical report
- Severely critical report
issues
- Improvement Notice
- Rumours, no media
- Local media coverage – short term
- Local media - long-term adverse
- National media adverse
- National/International media/
Adverse Publicity/
coverage
-Some public embarrassment
publicity
publicity less than 3 days
adverse publicity, more than 3
Reputation
- Little effect on staff morale
- Minor effect on staff morale/public attitudes
- Significant effect on staff
- Public confidence in the
days
morale/public perception of the
organisation undermined
- MSP/MP/SEHD concern
organisation
- Use of services affected
(Questions in Parliament)
Local MSP/SEHD interest
- Court Enforcement/Public
Enquiry/FAI