17% to 18% chance of benefit sanctions on JSA? @TickyW @jdportes

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Dear Department for Work and Pensions,

What is a claimant's probability of being sanctioned at any point during a JSA claim, during past 5 years, broken down on a yearly basis or if not to costly to answer on a month by month basis?

Background to questions

@dwppressoffice This analysis suggests the annual JSA sanctions rate for 2014 was ~ 17%. Any comments?
@jdportes pic.twitter.com/j3gRKjSIWS
https://twitter.com/TickyW/status/623934...

@TickyW 1. Certainly closer to reality than @dwppressoffice's version, which is deliberately misleading. Q is what we're trying to show

@TickyW @dwppressoffice 2. I think most obvious Q is "what is a claimant's probability of being sanctioned at any point during claim?"

@TickyW @dwppressoffice 3In which case answer roughly (no of sanctions in month)*average duration in months/(avg no. of claims at any point)

@TickyW @dwppressoffice 4. For Dec 14, gives 35K*4/(780K) =17-18%, so not far off your numbers.

Yours faithfully,

Ian Wolf

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