Projected and actual deaths

Roedd y cais yn llwyddiannus.

Dear Office for National Statistics,

Please provide me with,

The latest projection of deaths in England for the year July 2019-June 2020 from the most recent official projections before COVID19,

The actual number of registered deaths in England over that period,

The number of excess deaths calculated as actual deaths minus projected deaths,

The number of those registered deaths where COVID19 was involved according to the death certificate.

Yours faithfully,

John Harrison

FOI Team, Office for National Statistics

Our Reference: FOI/2020/1116


Dear  John


Thank you for your email requesting data pertaining to death projections
mid-2019 to mid-2020 compared to actual deaths.


I am writing to confirm that the Office for National Statistics has now
completed its search for the information which you requested and the
response can be found here:



You have the right to have this response to your Freedom of Information
request reviewed internally by an internal review process and, if you
remain unhappy with the decision, by the Information Commissioner. If you
would like to have the decision reviewed please email the Freedom of
Information Team at ‘[ONS request email]’ or write to The FoI Team, Room
1100, Office for National Statistics, Segensworth Road, Titchfield PO15
5RR, and mark your correspondence "Internal Review".

If you have any queries about this email, please contact the Freedom of
Information Team ('[ONS request email]').

Please remember to quote the reference number above in any future


The Freedom of Information Team

Office for National Statistics


For information on Coronavirus, please visit [2]



Visible links


Dear FOI Team,

Thanks for answering part of my request.

The link you supplied to 'projected deaths' actually linked to projected mortality rates but I spent some time exploring your website and found the figures that I think should be used. I believe that the latest official projected deaths for England (before Covid19) for July 2019 to June 2020 is 510 thousand. Please tell me if I've picked up the wrong figures.

You provided the Covid19 deaths figures though the Excel file with the numbers had these formatted as text. After converting these to numbers I arrive at a total of 50 thousand for January to June 2020.

Putting the numbers together to produce the third part of my request I arrive at:

Projected deaths: 510 thousand
Actual deaths: 557 thousand
Excess deaths = 47 thousand.
Covid deaths : 50 thousand

So deaths were actually 3 thousand lower than expected in 2019/20 after taking out the deaths attributed to Covid19.

Is that right?

Yours sincerely,

John Harrison

Dear FOI Team,

I've been waiting nearly 7 weeks for you to supply the official projection of deaths in England before Covid19. Would it speed matters up if I asked for an internal review?

Yours sincerely,

John Harrison

Baker, Anne, Office for National Statistics

Good afternoon Mr Harrison


Thank you for your response.


The ONS Population statistics team complete population progression
estimates using the mortality rates as part of their publications, this is
the link that we provided within the initial FOI response. Unfortunately,
we do not publish or calculate death projections, therefore we consider
this information not held.


However, if this is of any assistance to you, we do report excess deaths
for 2020 weekly as part of our [1]Deaths registered weekly in England and
Wales: publication, in figure 6 using the [2]Download the data  option.


Kind regards



Anne Baker  | Senior Customer Service and Data Release Manager | Health
Analysis and Pandemic Insight | Public Policy Analysis

Office for National Statistics | Swyddfa Ystadegau Gwladol

Tel: +44 (0)1633 580038 | [mobile number] | [3][email address]

 [4]| [5]@ONS




dangos adrannau a ddyfynnir

Dear Anne,

Thanks for your reply. I've had another hunt around your website and found this link

That seems to be projected numbers of deaths. Can ONS please confirm whether the figure I quoted before (which I think I found on a different page on your site) of 510 thousand deaths in England for July 2019 to June 2020 was the latest projected number of deaths before Covid19 happened. If the link doesn't show the projected number of deaths please could you explain to me what it is?

Thank you very much for your help.

Yours sincerely.

John Harrison

Dear FOI Team,

I've been waiting since 27 November for you to tell me the projected death figure for England for July 2019 to June 2020. Please confirm whether the figure I quoted previously was the latest projection of the number of deaths current before Covid. If it isn't, please provide a link to the correct figure or explain what exemption you are claiming to justify not providing it.

Yours sincerely,

John Harrison

FOI Team, Office for National Statistics

Dear John,

Thank you for your email.

The 2018-based national population projections include a table for England as follows:
For July 2019 to end of June 2020 the 2018-based projection was that there would be 510,000 deaths.

This information was taken from the following link:

I hope this helps with your enquiry.

Kind regards,
The Freedom of Information Team | UK Statistics Authority | Awdurdod Ystadegau'r Deyrnas Unedig
@UKStatsAuth | [email address] |

dangos adrannau a ddyfynnir

Dear FOI Team,

Thank you.

Yours sincerely,

John Harrison