How many 2020 A level students are there for whom it was mathematically impossible to get an A*

The request was partially successful.

Dear Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation,

In light of this year's extraordinary circumstances, you published a technical report on the algorithm used to moderate this year's grades at https://www.gov.uk/government/publicatio....

In this report, the "The direct centre-level performance" (DCP) approach is elaborated throughout chapter 8. The probability distribution P'{kj} as defined on page 104 appears to control the awarded grades based on ordinal rank. For how many entries was this P'{kj} such that even the first ranked student in that subject at that school could not achieve an A*, and for how many of these did the student have an A* "Centre Assessed Grade"/"Predicted Grade"?

Yours faithfully,

Olek Gajowniczek

Ofqual FOI, Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation

Dear Olek Gajowniczek

Thank you for your request, made under the Freedom of information Act 2000 (the Act). We will deal with your request in line with the Act.

Please note that due to Covid-19 we might not be able to respond within statutory timelines. We will respond as soon as we can.

Kind regards

Freedom of Information Team
Ofqual

• Office: 0300 303 3344
• Earlsdon Park, 53-55 Butts Road, Coventry, CV1 3BH

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Your information

In order to provide you with a response to your email, Ofqual will process any personal data contained in your email in line with our statutory and regulatory duties and data protection legislation.

We will, as far as possible, maintain your confidentiality and anonymity, if you have requested us to do so. However, it may be necessary to share your personal data in order to process your enquiry and provide you with a full response, and sometimes we may need to share your correspondence with colleagues in Ofqual, with other government departments or with Awarding Organisations.

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For further information about how Ofqual processes personal data, please visit our Personal Information Charter page.

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Ofqual FOI, Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation

Dear Olek

 

Freedom of Information Act (“FOIA”) request

Our reference: FOI2021128

 

I refer to your recent request for information, made under the Freedom of
Information Act 200 (“the Act”).

 

Under the Act, public authorities have two duties to individuals
requesting information: firstly, to confirm whether or not they hold the
information requested and, secondly, to provide a copy of that information
unless one or more of the exemptions under the Act apply.  

 

Your request 

You raised a query with Ofqual regarding the technical report published by
Ofqual on the algorithm used to moderate qualification grades in Summer
2020.  In relation to the probability distribution P'{kj} (as defined on
page 104 of the technical report), you have asked for disclosure of the
number of entries where the P'{kj} was such that even the first ranked
student in that subject at that school could not achieve an A*, and for
how many of these did the student have an A* "Centre Assessed
Grade"/"Predicted Grade"?

 

Response from Ofqual

Since receipt of your request, you will likely be aware that a policy
decision was taken not to use the algorithm to standardise grades in
summer 2020, and that students would be permitted to rely upon their
Centre Assessed Grades instead.  Given the publicised change in policy, I
am writing to ask you whether you are still seeking the specific
information requested?

 

If you do require specific details as set out in your request, please
confirm by responding to this email.  If I do not hear from you within the
next 7 days, I will assume that the information is no longer required from
Ofqual and will close our case file.

 

Internal review  

If you are unhappy with the way in which your request has been handled you
have the right to request an internal review. You can request an internal
review by contacting: 

Naik Sandhu 

Legal Practice Manager, Ofqual  

Earlsdon Park 

53-55 Butts Road 

Coventry, CV1 3BH 

([email address]).  

If you are dissatisfied with the outcome of the internal review, you can
apply to the Information Commissioner. Complaints to the Information
Commissioner should be sent to: 

FOI/EIR Complaints Resolution  

Information Commissioner’s Office  

Wycliffe House  

Water Lane  

Wilmslow  

Cheshire, SK9 5AF  

 

Yours sincerely 

 

 

Bridget Makepeace
Senior Officer Compliance, Ofqual

 

• Switchboard:  0300 303 3344

Until further notice, please do not send any postal correspondence to the
Ofqual Earlsdon Park office, which is closed due to the current COVID-19
situation.
Earlsdon Park, 53-55 Butts Road, Coventry, CV1 3BH

[1]Ofqual on GOV.UK • [2]Blog • [3]Twitter • [4]YouTube • [5]LinkedIn
 

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Dear Ofqual FOI,

I am still interested to know this information requested in order to understand the context of the decision making process.

Yours sincerely,

Olek Gajowniczek

Ofqual FOI, Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation

Thank you for your request, made under the Freedom of information Act 2000
(the Act). We will deal with your request in line with the Act.

 

Please note that due to Covid-19 we might not be able to respond within
statutory timelines. We will respond as soon as we can.

 

Kind regards,

 

 

Freedom of Information Team, Ofqual

• Until further notice, do not send any correspondence to the Ofqual
Earlsdon Park office, which is closed due to the current COVID-19
situation.
Earlsdon Park, 53-55 Butts Road, Coventry, CV1 3BH

 

Your information

 

In order to provide you with a response to your email, Ofqual will process
any personal data contained in your email in line with our statutory and
regulatory duties and data protection legislation.

 

We will, as far as possible, maintain your confidentiality and anonymity,
if you have requested us to do so. However, it may be necessary to share
your personal data in order to process your enquiry and provide you with a
full response, and sometimes we may need to share your correspondence with
colleagues in Ofqual, with other government departments or with Awarding
Organisations.

 

Please be aware that if you exercise your right to remain anonymous, we
may not be able to reply fully to your correspondence.

 

If you believe that Ofqual has not complied with your data protection
rights, please contact Ofqual’s Data Protection Officer
[1][email address] in the first instance. You can also contact
the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) at [2]https://ico.org.uk/ or
telephone 0303 123 1113.

 

For further information about how Ofqual processes personal data, please
visit our [3]Personal Information Charter page.

References

Visible links
1. mailto:[email address]
2. https://ico.org.uk/
3. https://www.gov.uk/government/organisati...

Ofqual FOI, Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation

Dear Mr Gajowniczek

 

Freedom of Information request

Our reference: FOI2021236 

 

Thank you for clarifying that you would still like to receive the data
that you requested, following the change in government policy in the
awarding of grades this summer.

 

I have put your request to the relevant team, who are have asked me to
obtain some further clarification from you.

 

We understand your request to mean that you are asking for the number of
entries where the probability of a student achieving an A* in that
school/college was 0, but there could also be cases where the probability
was above 0 (but very small) where no candidates were ultimately awarded
an A* under the standardisation model. Is this correct? 

 

Your request appears to be asking for information in the context of the
number of entries. However, the standardisation model operated at the
centre/subject level, which does not fit with the way that your
information request is framed. The team was also unclear about what part
of the process you are referring to.

 

Given the way in which the data is structured, the team has suggested that
it might be easier to provide you with a count of the number of
centre/subject combinations where at least one candidate had a Centre
Assessed Grade of A*, but no candidates got an A* following
standardisation. Would that information be suitable to satisfy your
request?

 

Thank you in advance and I look forward to hearing from you.

 

Yours sincerely

 

 

Bridget Makepeace
Senior Officer Compliance, Ofqual

 

• Switchboard:  0300 303 3344
• Until further notice, do not send any correspondence to the Ofqual
Earlsdon Park office, which is closed due to the current COVID-19
situation.
Earlsdon Park, 53-55 Butts Road, Coventry, CV1 3BH

[1]Ofqual on GOV.UK • [2]Blog • [3]Twitter • [4]YouTube • [5]LinkedIn
 

This message may contain confidential information. If you have received
this message by mistake, please inform the sender by sending an e-mail
reply. At the same time please delete the message and any attachments from
your system without making, distributing or retaining any copies. Although
all of our e-mail messages and attachments are automatically virus
scanned, we assume no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from
the receipt or use of this message.

 

References

Visible links
1. http://gov.uk/ofqual
2. http://ofqual.blog.gov.uk/
3. http://twitter.com/ofqual
4. http://youtube.com/ofqual
5. http://linkedin.com/company/ofqual

Dear Bridget,

I think (if I understood the algorithm correctly) your proposal to look at the centre/subject combinations where no candidates were awarded an A* but at least one had a CAG of A* is close enough to the set in which I am interested. I am interested in the number of candidates across all centre/subject pairs (both total, and those with an A* CAG), rather than the count of centre/subject pairs.

I hope this is clear.

Many thanks

Olek Gajowniczek

Ofqual FOI, Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation

Dear Olek

 

Freedom of Information request

Ref: FOI2021236

 

Thank you for responding to me so quickly.

 

I will now ask the team to commence working on your request using the
amended criteria.  As soon as I have received the final information, I
will write to you again.

 

Yours sincerely

 

Bridget Makepeace

Senior Officer Compliance, Ofqual

 

• Switchboard:  0300 303 3344

 

Until further notice, please do not send any postal correspondence to the
Ofqual Earlsdon Park office, which is closed due to the current COVID-19
situation.

Earlsdon Park, 53-55 Butts Road, Coventry, CV1 3BH

 

 

Ofqual on GOV.UK • Blog • Twitter • YouTube • LinkedIn

 

This message may contain confidential information. If you have received
this message by mistake, please inform the sender by sending an e-mail
reply. At the same time please delete the message and any attachments from
your system without making, distributing or retaining any copies. Although
all of our e-mail messages and attachments are automatically virus
scanned, we assume no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from
the receipt or use of this message.

 

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Bridget Makepeace, Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation

Dear Mr Gajowniczek

 

Freedom of Information request

Our reference: FOI2021236

 

I refer to your recent request for information, made under the Freedom of
Information Act 200 (“the Act”). Please accept our apologies for the delay
in responding to you. This was due to receipt of a large volume of Freedom
of Information requests which were received within a relatively short
timeframe.

 

Under the Act, public authorities have two duties to individuals
requesting information: firstly, to confirm whether or not they hold the
information requested and, secondly, to provide a copy of that information
unless one or more of the exemptions under the Act apply.  

 

Your request 

You have asked Ofqual to provide you with the following information:

 

A count of the number of centre/subject combinations where at least one
candidate had a Centre Assessed Grade (CAG) of A*, but no candidates got
an A* following grade standardisation.

 

Our response 

We have searched our records and I can confirm that Ofqual
holds some information of the type that you have requested. 

 

The total centre/subject combinations were: 49,710

Of these, the total with at least one CAG which was an A* was: 29,148

The total with at least one CAG A*, but with no calculated A* grade after
standardisation was: 5,848

 

I hope this information is of assistance.

 

 

Internal review  

If you are unhappy with the way in which your request has
been handled, you have the right to request an internal review. You can
request an internal review by contacting: 

 

Naik Sandhu 

Legal Practice Manager, Ofqual  

Earlsdon Park 

53-55 Butts Road 

Coventry, CV1 3BH 

(Email: [1][email address]).  

 

If you are dissatisfied with the outcome of the internal review, you can
apply to the Information Commissioner. Complaints to the Information
Commissioner should be sent to: 

 

FOI/EIR Complaints Resolution  

Information Commissioner’s Office  

Wycliffe House  

Water Lane  

Wilmslow  

Cheshire, SK9 5AF  

 

 

Yours sincerely 

 

 

Bridget Makepeace
Senior Officer Compliance, Ofqual

 

• Switchboard:  0300 303 3344
• Until further notice, do not send any correspondence to the Ofqual
Earlsdon Park office, which is closed due to the current COVID-19
situation.
Earlsdon Park, 53-55 Butts Road, Coventry, CV1 3BH

[2]Ofqual on GOV.UK • [3]Blog • [4]Twitter • [5]YouTube • [6]LinkedIn
 

This message may contain confidential information. If you have received
this message by mistake, please inform the sender by sending an e-mail
reply. At the same time please delete the message and any attachments from
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all of our e-mail messages and attachments are automatically virus
scanned, we assume no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from
the receipt or use of this message.

 

References

Visible links
1. mailto:[email address]
2. http://gov.uk/ofqual
3. http://ofqual.blog.gov.uk/
4. http://twitter.com/ofqual
5. http://youtube.com/ofqual
6. http://linkedin.com/company/ofqual

Dear Bridget,

Of the 5,848 centre/subject pairs of interest - I was interested in the total how many candidates held an A* CAG. For instance there could be several candidates awarded an A* CAG in any given subject/centre. It seems from your response you have returned the number of centres rather than the number of entrants/candidates.

Many thanks so far

Yours sincerely,

Olek Gajowniczek

Ofqual FOI, Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation

Dear Mr Gajowniczek

 

Freedom of Information request

Our reference: FOI2021236 

 

Please accept my apologies for the slight delay in responding, as I have
been away on leave until yesterday.

 

We have provided information in this format following your agreement to
vary your FOI request to ask for “a count of the number of centre/subject
combinations where at least one candidate had a Centre Assessed Grade of
A*, but no candidates got an A* following standardisation”.

 

As outlined previously, this amendment was suggested due to the way in
which the data is held on our records. The standardisation model operated
at centre/subject level (rather than the number of entries) and our
response reflects the structure of the data that we hold. I hope this
explanation is of assistance.

 

Yours sincerely

 

 

Bridget Makepeace
Senior Officer Compliance, Ofqual

 

• Switchboard:  0300 303 3344

Until further notice, please do not send any postal correspondence to the
Ofqual Earlsdon Park office, which is closed due to the current COVID-19
situation.
Earlsdon Park, 53-55 Butts Road, Coventry, CV1 3BH

[1]Ofqual on GOV.UK • [2]Blog • [3]Twitter • [4]YouTube • [5]LinkedIn
 

This message may contain confidential information. If you have received
this message by mistake, please inform the sender by sending an e-mail
reply. At the same time please delete the message and any attachments from
your system without making, distributing or retaining any copies. Although
all of our e-mail messages and attachments are automatically virus
scanned, we assume no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from
the receipt or use of this message.

 

Please accept my apologies for the slight delay in responding, as I have
been away on leave until yesterday.

 

We have provided information in this format based on your agreement to
vary your FOI request to ask for “a count of the number of centre/subject
combinations where at least one candidate had a Centre Assessed Grade of
A*, but no candidates got an A* following standardisation”.

 

As outlined previously, this amendment was suggested due to the way in
which the data is held on our records. The standardisation model operated
at centre/subject level (rather than the number of entries) and our
response reflects the structure of the data that we hold. I hope this
explanation is of assistance.

 

Yours sincerely

 

 

 

 

 

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