Expected deaths 28 days post positive covid test

J. Mwanzia made this Rhyddid Gwybodaeth request to Public Health Scotland

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Public Health Scotland Nid oedd gan y wybodaeth y gofynnwyd amdani.

Dear Public Health Scotland,
In response to a FOI https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/c... you outline the steps you took to calculate the expected deaths in the cohort of vaccinated people in the 28 days post vaccine.
Has any similar analysis been done on expected deaths during the 28 days post positive covid test to compare to actual deaths?
If not, why not?

Yours faithfully,

J. Mwanzia

phs foi, Public Health Scotland

1 Atodiad

 

Dear J Mwanzia

 

Enquiry Reference Number -  2021-000788. Your reference -
[FOI #778036 email]

 

Thank you for contacting Public Health Scotland.

 

In your email of 29 July you referenced an interest in an explanation of
analysis and included a web link.

 

Having reviewed your information request, I regret that it is unclear
precisely what information is being requested. 

 

I will not be able to take this matter further without extra information
from you.

Next steps

 

Could you kindly respond back to outline further what information is of
interest to you. Specifically, If you could provide some further details
on the analysis you have in mind. This may enable us to determine what may
be possible to assist you with.

 

We consider that this information request is suspended and that the 20
working day response timescale will not commence until we hear from you.

 

If you are unhappy with our response to your request, you do have the
right to request us to review it. Your request should be made within 40
working days of receipt of this correspondence, and we will reply within
20 working days of receipt. The review will be undertaken by a reviewer
who was not involved in the original decision-making process. The reviewer
can be contacted as follows:

 

The FOI Reviewer

Public Health Scotland

Gyle Square

1 South Gyle Crescent

Edinburgh

EH12 9EB

Email: [1][email address]

 

If our decision is unchanged following a review and you remain
dissatisfied with this, you then have the right to make a formal complaint
to the Scottish Information Commissioner within 6 months of receipt of our
review response. You can do this by using the Scottish Information
Commissioner’s Office online appeals service at
[2]www.itspublicknowledge.info/Appeal. If you remain dissatisfied with the
Commissioner’s response you then have the option to appeal to the Court of
Session on a point of law.

 

Please contact me if you would like to discuss.

 

Kind regards

 

Kiri Brown | Freedom of Information Officer

Public Health Scotland

Email: [3][email address]

Phone: 0131 275 7867

[4]Title: Public Health Scotland logo - Description: The Public Health
Scotland logo

[5]Web | [6]Twitter | [7]Instagram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Dear phs foi,
in your response to this FOI https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/7...
you stated:
"This document outlines the analysis used to calculate the expected number of deaths in
the 28 days following a Covid-19 Vaccination (number of days between vaccine and
death/censor is 0-27, where 0 is the day of vaccination). Further details on the
methodology are also included below.
The rate_day variable was first calculated to give the background mortality rate. This was
derived based on the 5-year average number of deaths and mid-year population
estimates before the pandemic started, and was age, sex and month specific.
For the vaccinated cohort, the number of persondays post vaccination date was then
stratified by 5-year age group (agegp2), sex and month. Covid-19 vaccination started in
December 2020 and data was only available for the publication up until May 2021 so the
months included were 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 12 (see line 77 of the R script).
The persondays in each age/sex/month combination were then multiplied by the
corresponding rate_day to derive the expected number of death for each age/sex/month
combination (see line 92: exp_event = persondays * rate_day column). Finally, the
expected number of deaths was summed for the age groups reported in the published
tables.
Please note that the script outlines the steps to calculate the expected number of deaths
following a dose 1 vaccination as shown in Table 1 of the publication. The steps to
calculate the expected deaths following a dose 2 vaccination are very similar. This
involved changing the date of the first dose (date_vacc_1) to the date of the second dose ."

I asked whether there had been any similar analysis of deaths in the 28 days following a positive covid test to assess the "expected" death rate amongst the cohort who tested positive. As all deaths within 28days of a positive covid test are reported as covid deaths, I wanted to see analysis that picks out how many of them are in excess of the expected death rate in the cohort testing positive.

Is there any intention to perform such an analysis and if not, why not?

Yours sincerely,
J. Mwanzia

phs foi, Public Health Scotland

1 Atodiad

Dear J. Mwanzia

 

RE: Freedom of Information Request FOI 2021 000749

I am writing regarding your clarification request for information,
received on 5 August 2021 regarding;  

 

“…I asked whether there had been any similar analysis of deaths in the 28
days following a positive covid test to assess the "expected" death rate
amongst the cohort who tested positive. As all deaths within 28days of a
positive covid test are reported as covid deaths, I wanted to see analysis
that picks out; how many of them are in excess of the expected death rate
in the cohort testing positive.

 

Is there any intention to perform such an analysis and if not, why not?"

 

In response to your query, we have noted that the question above is
different to the original Freedom of Information Request.  The original
FOI request asked:

 

“1. How was the figure for expected deaths calculated?

2. Did it take into account the percentage of the population vaccinated
and unvaccinated at the time of each person’s death?”

 

We have provided a full response to the above request by providing the
script and methodology behind the calculation for question 1 and confirmed
that yes this accounted for the percentage of the population vaccinated
and unvaccinated for question 2.

 

If you wish to submit the clarification above as a new FOI request, new
FOI searches/data analysis would need to be completed. Please can you
advise if you would like us to process the first portion of this email
highlighted in bold from your correspondence 5 August 2021, as a new
request?

 

We look forward to hearing from you.

 

Kind regards

 

Chaz

 

 

Chaz Anyanwu | Freedom of Information Officer

Public Health Scotland

Email: [1][email address]

[2]Title: Public Health Scotland logo - Description: The Public Health
Scotland logo

[3]Web | [4]Twitter | [5]Instagram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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phs foi, Public Health Scotland

2 Atodiad

Dear J. Mwanzia,

 

Freedom of Information Reference: 2021-000788

 

Please find attached our response to your freedom of information request.

 

I hope this information is helpful to you.  Please do not hesitate to
contact me on [1][email address] if I can be of any further assistance.

 

If you are unhappy with our response to your request, you do have the
right to request us to review it. Your request should be made within 40
working days of receipt of this correspondence, and we will reply within
20 working days of receipt. The review will be undertaken by a reviewer
who was not involved in the original decision-making process. The reviewer
can be contacted as follows:

 

The FOI Reviewer

Public Health Scotland

Gyle Square

1 South Gyle Crescent

Edinburgh

EH12 9EB

Email: [2][email address]

 

Please note that Public Health Scotland staff are working from home
currently in line with the COVID-19 pandemic guidance. Therefore, contact
by email is preferable.

 

If our decision is unchanged following a review and you remain
dissatisfied with this, you then have the right to make a formal complaint
to the Scottish Information Commissioner within 6 months of receipt of our
review response. You can do this by using the Scottish Information
Commissioner’s Office online appeals service at
[3]www.itspublicknowledge.info/Appeal. If you remain dissatisfied with the
Commissioner’s response you then have the option to appeal to the Court of
Session on a point of law.

 

Yours sincerely,

 

Saba ALSalahy FOI Coordinator

Public Health Scotland

Email: [4][email address]

[5]cid:image001.jpg@01D748A9.AC294E20

[6]Web | [7]Twitter | [8]Instagram

 

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References

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7. https://twitter.com/P_H_S_Official
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