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Public Attitudes to Constitutional Change in Scotland
Introduction
This paper sets out available data on public attitudes to constitutional change from two sources a) the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey and b) recent opinion polls.
A. Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
The Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSAS) has included the same question on attitudes to constitutional change since 1999. SSAS data is the most statistically robust available data on attitudes to constitutional change in Scotland because of the sampling methods used. The survey is next in the field in April 2009, with results available in September 2009.
The question on constitutional change is not funded by SG, rather it is included by Professor John Curtice, who is a co-director of the survey, and `self-funded' by the research organisation who run the survey, Scottish Centre for Social Research. The question wording is:
Which of the following statements comes closest to your view?
1. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union.
2. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union.
3. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers.
4. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers.
5. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament
The latest data available is from 2007:
Independent, separate from UK, outside EU |
9% |
Independent, separate from UK, in EU |
13% |
Part of UK, some taxation powers |
55% |
Part of the UK, no taxation powers |
8% |
Part of the UK without elected parliament |
9% |
Don't know |
5% |
Base: 1508
The trends in responses to this question over time are tracked in the graph below.
The SSAS also asks people how much they agree or disagree that `the Scottish Parliament should be given more powers'.
B. Opinion polls
Findings from opinion polls of adults in Scotland are listed below. Opinion polls are considered less statistically robust than random surveys like the SSAS due to the sampling methods used. Generally, these opinion polls are run by market research companies for media clients, especially newspapers.
Findings are grouped by question wording and survey methodology to allow comparisons over time where possible. Two option polls using similar wording to the question in Choosing Scotland's Future are listed first, followed by two-option polls using other question wording, followed by multi-option polls.
Patterns and conclusions
Levels of support for independence vary widely, between questions and surveys, ranging from 25 to 52%.
The proportion of respondents selecting `don't know' or `would not vote' is high in all surveys - up to 21%.
Sets of the same question being asked over time show a slight decline in support for independence.
Generally, in questions where the independence option is listed first, support is higher (between 31 and 52%) than when it is listed second (between 25 and 31%).
There are also differences between which survey vehicle is used. Support is consistently higher in ICM polls than YouGov or TNS omnibus surveys.
Polls using question wording similar to that in Choosing Scotland's Future
The SNP have recently outlined their plans for a possible referendum on Scottish independence in future. If such a referendum were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote?
Date of Poll |
|
I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state |
I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the united Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state |
Don't know |
08/02/2009 |
% |
38 |
40 |
22 |
29/10/2009 |
% |
35 |
43 |
22 |
01/07/2008 |
% |
39 |
41 |
21 |
04/04/2008 |
% |
41 |
40 |
19 |
01/12/2008 |
% |
40 |
44 |
16 |
23/08/2007 |
% |
35 |
50 |
15 |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: TNS (face to face, in home)
Client: Herald
If the SNP leads the next Scottish government after May it intends to hold a referendum on Scottish independence. The wording of the referendum question will be very similar to this. "The Scottish parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state." the responses would be "Yes I agree" or "No I disagree". On balance how would you be likely to respond?
Date of Poll |
|
Yes |
No |
Don't know |
20/04/2007 |
% |
33 |
50 |
17 |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Sunday Times
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "The Scottish Parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state."
Don't know |
|
Agree |
Disagree |
Don't know |
30/04/2007 |
% |
35 |
55 |
10 |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Scotsman
The SNP wishes to hold a referendum a referendum on Scottish independence in due course. Voters would be asked whether they agree or disagree 'that the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes and independent state'. How would you vote if such a referendum were held tomorrow?
Date of Poll |
|
I would vote YES (i.e. For Scottish independence) |
I would vote NO (i.e. Against Scottish independence) |
Don't know |
Would not vote |
30/01/2009* |
% |
29 |
55 |
12 |
4 |
22/10/2008 |
% |
31 |
53 |
14 |
2 |
08/09/2008 |
% |
34 |
50 |
13 |
2 |
10/07/2008** |
% |
36 |
48 |
14 |
2 |
Base: c. 1000, *1500
Survey contractor: You Gov (online)
Client: Sunday Times, **Daily Telegraph
Other two-option polls
If there were a referendum on whether to retain the present Scottish Parliament and Executive in more or less their present form or to establish Scotland as a completely separate state outside the United Kingdom but inside the European Union, how would you vote?
Date of Poll |
|
In favour of retaining the present Scottish Parliament |
In favour of a completely separate state outside the UK |
DK |
would not vote |
30/04/2008 |
% |
59 |
25 |
10 |
6 |
17/01/2008* |
% |
57 |
27 |
11 |
4 |
24/04/2007 |
% |
53 |
25 |
17 |
4 |
30/3/2007 |
% |
51 |
28 |
18 |
4 |
23/11/2006 |
% |
50 |
31 |
14 |
5 |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Daily Telegraph, *Scottish Daily Express
Do you support or oppose Scotland being a country independently of the rest of the United Kingdom?
Date of Poll |
|
Support Scottish Independence |
Oppose Scottish Independence |
Don't know |
08/04/2008 |
% |
34 |
51 |
15 |
11/01/2007 |
% |
40 |
44 |
16 |
10/04/2006 |
% |
46 |
39 |
15 |
01/04/2005* |
% |
46 |
39 |
15 |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: You Gov (online), *TNS (face to face)
Client: the Sun, *unknown (source: Independence First)
In a Referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?
Date of Poll |
|
I agree that Scotland should become an independent country |
I do not agree that Scotland should become an independent country |
Don't know |
01/02/2007 |
% |
44 |
42 |
11 |
01/02/2007 |
% |
51 |
36 |
14 |
01/11/2006 |
% |
51 |
39 |
9 |
30/10/2006 |
% |
39 |
51 |
9 |
Base: Unknown
Survey contractor: ICM (telephone)
Client: Unknown (Source: Independence First)
Should Scotland become an independent country?
Date of Poll |
|
Yes |
No |
Don't know |
01/11/2006 |
% |
52 |
35 |
13 |
Base: Unknown
Survey contractor: ICM (telephone)
Client: Unknown (Source: Independence first)
If there were referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become and independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote - in favour of Scotland being an independent country or against Scotland being an independent country?
Date of Poll |
|
In favour |
Against |
Don't know |
11/09/2006 |
% |
44 |
42 |
15 |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Sunday Times
Multi-option polls
Multi-option polls on constitutional issues are less common and no examples were found of repeated multi-option polls using the same question wording. Findings are listed below.
Patterns and conclusions
In multi-option questions, around a quarter of respondents support independence.
The option with the highest level of support is consistently `retaining the Scottish Parliament but giving it greater power'. The percentage of respondents in favour of this option is just under 40%.
The exception to this is ESRC Scottish Election study, which splits independence option into two - within or outside EU. Combined, the two are higher (32%) than support for `increased powers within a devolved Parliament' (23%).
Interestingly, only one of the questions offers a don't know option.
If there were a referendum and the following were the options how would you vote?
30/04/2008 |
In favour of retaining the Scottish Parliament with its existing powers |
34% |
|
In favour of retaining the Scottish Parliament but giving it greater power |
38% |
|
In favour of a completely separate state outside the UK |
19% |
|
Would not vote |
9% |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Daily Telegraph
[text from previous question] - …underway about whether or not people in Scotland should be given an opportunity to vote in a referendum that finds out about public opinion in relation to the future of the Scottish Parliament. This referendum is likely to be a multi-option referendum, which looks at public support for stronger devolved powers as well as the possibility of Scotland's [...] [Actual question] And imagine now that such a referendum were to be held tomorrow - which of the following statements comes closest to your view?
20/08/2007 |
Scotland should become an independent country |
23% |
|
The Scottish Parliament should be given more powers, rather than Scotland becoming independent |
39% |
|
Things should remain as they are |
20% |
|
The Scottish Parliament should be abolished |
9% |
|
None of these |
1% |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Sunday Times
ESRC Scottish Election study - question wording not available
01/05/2007 |
The Scottish Parliament should be abolished and all Scottish laws passed by Westminster again |
14% |
|
There should be no changes to the present arrangement: Scotland should have a devolved Parliament with limited powers |
23% |
|
The Scottish Parliament's powers should be increased and it should raise more of its own taxes |
23% |
|
Scotland should be independent within the European Union |
21% |
|
Scotland should be independent outside the European Union |
11% |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: ESRC
If there were a referendum and the following were the options, how would you vote?
24/04/2007 |
In favour of retaining the Scottish Parliament but giving it greater powers |
38% |
|
In favour of retaining the Scottish Parliament with its existing powers |
25% |
|
In favour of a completely separate state outside the UK |
23% |
|
Would not vote |
4% |
|
Don't know |
11% |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Daily Telegraph
Thinking of constitutional change, which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion.
20/04/2007
|
I support Scotland becoming an independent country |
26% |
|
I support the Scottish Parliament being given more powers, short of independence |
37% |
|
I support things remaining as they are |
17% |
|
I support the abolition of the Scottish Parliament |
12% |
Base: c.1000
Survey contractor: YouGov (online)
Client: Sunday Times
John Curtice (2007) Institute of Governance seminar. Independence - those who answered statement option one or two; devolution - three and four; Neither - five.
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