Directorate of Road Network Performance
P2Ws in bus lanes Main Report
Transport for London
P2W in bus lanes study Main Report
Transport for London - September 2007
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Directorate of Road Network Performance
P2Ws in bus lanes Main Report
Contents
1.0
Introduction
4
2.0 Trial Objective
5
3.0
Report
Structure
6
3.1
Background
6
3.2
Original
trial
report
6
3.3
Extended
trial
report 7
3.4
Final
trial
report
8
4.0 Collision Analysis - Before and after data
10
comparison
4.1
Vulnerable
Road
Users
11
4.1.1.
Powered
Two
Wheelers
11
4.1.2
Pedal
Cycles
13
4.1.3
Pedestrians
16
4.1.4
Bus
occupants
19
4.1.5
All
users
21
4.2
Conclusions
–
Casualty
analysis
23
5.0
User
and
Attitudinal
surveys
24
5.1
Vehicle
usage 24
5.2
Migration
25
5.2.1
Migration
summary
26
5.3
Opinion
surveys
26
5.4
Speeds
and
bus
journey
times
26
5.5
Conclusions - usage, speeds and attitudinal surveys
28
6.0
Collision
Rates
29
6.1
All/P2W
collision
rates
29
6.2
Pedestrian
collision
rates
31
6.3
Pedal
cycle
collision
rates
35
6.4
Conclusion
-
collision
rates
37
7.0
Experiences
from
other
schemes
38
7.1
Bus Lane trials in London – M4 motorway
39
7.2
Other
London
borough
schemes
39
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7.3
UK
schemes
outside
London
40
7.4
Conclusions – experiences from other schemes
41
8.0
Conclusions
43
8.1
Context 43
8.2
Control
method
changes
44
8.3
Findings
44
8.3.1
Opinion
surveys
44
8.3.2
Cyclists 44
8.3.3
Pedestrians
45
8.3.4
Bus
occupants 45
8.3.5
Powered
Two
Wheelers
45
8.4
Change
in
use
by
modes
45
8.5
Summary
46
Appendices
Appendix I Casualty analysis using Original control method
Appendix II Casualty analysis using Tanner control method
Appendix III User and attitudinal surveys
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P2Ws in bus lanes Main Report
1.0 Introduction
Collisions involving Powered Two Wheeler (P2W) riders generate comparatively
high numbers of casualties in London, relative to the size of this group among
road users. Accordingly, P2W riders are identified as highly Vulnerable Road
Users (VRUs), and share this category with cyclists and pedestrians.
An extensive range of measures is being developed and deployed specifically to
improve the safety of cyclists and pedestrians. In contrast, apart from the general
use of safety cameras, trials of P2Ws in bus lanes and access to advanced stop
lines at controlled junctions, no practical traffic management measures have
been introduced in London specifically to enhance the safe use of the P2W
mode.
The Mayor and TfL recognise that the P2W has a positive role to play in reducing
congestion and associated pollution by offering a practical and efficient
alternative to four wheeled motorised modes – especially cars and vans for
courier and light freight. Other benefits to transport in London stem from low
financial costs associated with the mode. Many P2Ws, including small
motorcycles, mopeds and scooters, are cheap to buy and run, and are
increasingly recognised by TfL and nationally by the Department for Transport
(DfT) as an important component in tackling social and economic exclusion.
Currently, the extent of net benefits that the use of P2Ws offers to the population
of London and its visitors is significantly limited by the high costs of relatively
large numbers of collisions and casualties.
The number of trips and kilometres travelled by this mode have been increased
in London steadily from 1995 to 1999 and has remained at the 1999 level since.
Correspondingly, the development of innovative traffic management measures to
improve the safe use of this mode is becoming an increasingly important goal.
Proponents of P2W use consider that allowing this mode to use bus lanes would
dramatically improve the safety of riders, and all other road users
1. If these
expectations prove well founded, roll out of the measure has the added benefit of
involving relatively simple and small changes to streets with existing bus lanes.
Apart from identifying where to introduce the improvement first, the main task
and cost will be to renew bus lane signage. Should it be shown that allowing
motorcycles access to bus lanes would improve the safety of all road users, the
costs of implementing this measure would be minimal in comparison to other
major schemes.
Whilst the Mayor’s Transport Strategy recognises that P2Ws “can generate more
pollution and noise” than cars it also recognises their use as a “quick, relatively
low cost private transport that are more space and fuel efficient than cars”
(Chapter 4G.26) but it also refers to the and in response to the P2W lobby
committed to implementing a trial of P2W usage in bus lanes (Proposal 4G.1).
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P2Ws in bus lanes Main Report
The outcome from such a trial was deemed to be of incalculable value to the
cause of improving the safe use of P2Ws, and road safety in general throughout
the capital and the UK.
2.0 Trial
Objective
The primary objective for this study was to investigate and offer evidence to
show whether the safety of P2W users could be enhanced by allowing them
access to bus lanes (the measure), The assessment was to involve comparing
the casualty rate of all vulnerable road users (VRUs) to ensure the measure
does not create a negative impact on other road users.
Relatively high casualty numbers associated with use of mopeds, scooters and
motorcycles provide an ongoing cause for concern in London. P2W Killed or
Seriously Injured casualties (KSI) for the Capital have been the road user
category that has shown least progress towards the 2010 casualty reduction
targets. However, it is recognised that this has been against a background of
growth in ownership and usage.
The Mayor's Transport Strategy
2 includes a specific response to concerns about
P2W casualties. Proposal 4G 1, committed TfL to consider trials allowing P2Ws
into bus lanes as a means of potentially reducing the exposure of P2W riders to
general traffic in order to improve safety.
TfL took these factors into account in designing a comprehensive study which
considered the safety of all road users. The primary objectives for the trial were
to:
• Investigate whether allowing P2W use of bus lanes would be an effective
way to improve the safe use of the P2W mode in London.
• Discover whether significant disbenefits would arise, with particular
concern for other vulnerable road users, especially cyclists and
pedestrians.
• Publish the trial data and results of comparative calculations to quantify
the tangible positive and negative impacts of the measure.
• Draw conclusions from the experiment data where possible, to provide a
basis for future action by TfL, and to assist other transport authorities in
considering the merits of the measure on test.
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3.0 Report
Structure
3.1 Background
The report has evolved since the original study was commissioned and complex
arrays of factors and concerns have emerged during the course of the trial. For
ease of reference the three iterations of the trial’s development are:
• Original trial – instigated as part of the Mayor’s commitment in his
transport strategy to reduce P2W casualties.
• Extended trial – undertaken as a result of the findings of the original
report.
• Final trial – re-write of the extended trial to address the issues raised by
the stakeholders.
These are detailed in the sections below.
3.2
Original trial report
In September and October 2002, TfL introduced three pilot schemes on the
Transport for London Road Network (TLRN) whereby P2Ws were permitted to
use bus lanes along the three routes during the hours of operation.
The original trial was reported on after 18 months and the report published on
19th November 2004
3.
The report concluded that
“further casualty data is needed in order to make a
robust assessment of the trials.”
After consultation with stakeholders, the trial was extended for a further 18
months.
3.2.1 Original trial – casualty analysis scope and plan
The original procedure for the trial required the identification of ‘trial’ sections of
highway in which P2Ws were allowed in bus lanes, and ‘control’ sections of
highway without P2W access to bus lanes.
Detailed records of all reported collisions and casualties were gathered from trial
and control corridors throughout the eighteen month duration of the experiment.
Data were also gathered to establish an accurate record of reported collisions
and casualties on the corridors before the experiment began.
3.2.1.1
Methodology.- Key criteria for selection of trial and control sites3
• Part of TLRN
• Known locations of motorcycle usage
• Standard with-flow bus lane
• Mix of frontage (residential, commercial)
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• Mix of location, but outside congestion charge area
• High but not excessive casualty rates
3.2.1.2 Sites chosen for trial routes:
• A13 East India Dock Road, between Leamouth Road and Butcher Row
East - from 9th Sept 2002;
• A23 Brixton Road, between Camberwell New Road and Streatham
Common South; - from 20th Oct 2002; and
• A41 Finchley Road, between Queen’s Grove North and Platt’s Lane;
- from 20th Oct 2002.
3.2.1.3 Sites chosen for control routes:
• A5 Rondu Road to Summit Close and Humber Road to Staples Corner
• A10 Pasteur Gardens to Ostliffe Road and Wilbury Way to Laburnum
Avenue
3.3
Extended trial report
Following the publication of the 18 month report, the trial was extended for a
further 18 months and the method of control was changed from the route based
comparison using similar bus routes to an area based control that satisfied the
requirements of the Tanner Test, a formula devised by J C Tanner in work for the
Transport Research Laboratory, last published in the early 1980s.
The ‘Tanner Test’ formula became a new element in the method by which control
data could be generated, and a detailed description of how the Tanner Test was
applied can be found in Appendix II. In summary it involved collision figures from
the entire TLRN divided into three sets of figures with the results for the
boroughs nearest to the trial corridors being used as the control. The
disadvantages of this method include the fact that it uses a control ratio rather
than absolute figures,
4 which means that collision rates are not able to be
compared.
The publication of the extended report was proposed to be in the form of two
types of test procedure which could be used to assess the impact of introducing
the measure.
• A practical experiment – to quantify the tangible impact on collisions and
casualties during a thirty-six month before and after trial period (using the
Tanner Test).
• Attitudinal surveys – to gauge the opinions and feelings of road users
about the measure.
However, a number of concerns were raised by stakeholders when a verbal
account of the draft report on the casualty analysis (using Tanner) and an
Executive Summary of the user and attitudinal surveys were circulated at a
seminar held by TfL in September 2006.
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The main areas of contention that were relayed at the seminar were:
• As a result of extending the trial period to 36 months before and after
analysis of the casualty data the method of control altered in mid trial from
control routes to the use of the Tanner Test which allowed for a more
rigorous statistical analysis. However, the stakeholders were not informed
of the change.
• As a result of this change the new control method did not enable collision
rate comparison (due to possible migration, which was a factor not
considered during the original scoping of the trial) to be assessed.
• The Original trial remit did not consider experiences from other authorities
in the UK and abroad.
• The use of the A13 as a trial corridor was flawed due to the presence of
roadworks for the duration of the after period. This skewed the collision
numbers upwards.
• There was an element of subjectivity in the attitudinal and user surveys
• The impact of congestion charging (which started 4 months after this trial)
was not considered.
3.3.1 Extended trial – Casualty analysis scope and plan
The extended trial used the same start date as the original report (October
2002).
The key criteria and the sites chosen for the trial routes remained consistent with
the original scope (detailed in 3.2, above), but two changes were made to the
trial structure
Firstly, the duration of the before and after casualty studies was extended from
18 months to 36 months.
The second change involved the method of assessing the trial corridors against
the control data. To satisfy the Tanner Test, collision figures from the entire
TLRN were divided into three sets of figures from the boroughs nearest to the
trial corridors.
3.4 Final
trial
report
The most important issue to be considered when assessing the use of bus lanes
by P2Ws is the safety of all road users. The views of the stakeholders are
reflected in the new suite of documents which focus on the importance of safety.
All existing data has been re-assessed and the casualty history for the trial
routes has been assessed against the original control routes and also the
revised control method.
The data considered meaningful from the original user survey and attitudinal
surveys are also re-visited and presented here.
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P2Ws in bus lanes Main Report
The report structure is as follows:
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
MAIN
REPORT
Collision Analysis using
Collision Analysis using
User and attitudinal
original control data
revised control (Tanner)
surveys
This document (the main report) pulls together the evidence contained within the
three supporting documents (which are appended to this report) and assesses
potential benefits and disbenefits of the trial. The report widens the scope of the
trial to enable the concerns raised by the stakeholders to be addressed. This has
enabled factors previously not considered to be included, such as the
experiences of some of the other schemes that have been introduced in the UK
and overseas, and the issue surrounding migration of P2Ws between bus lanes.
3.4.1 Final trial – casualty analysis scope and plan
All data have been re-assessed for relevance and accuracy for the purposes of
assessing the viability of this measure. As requested at the stakeholders
meetings, two parallel casualty reports have been produced (see Appendix I –
Casualty analysis using the original control method, and Appendix II – Casualty
analysis using the Tanner control method) and analysis of both is contained
within this section.
However, in order to address other concerns raised by the stakeholders, the
following issues are considered;
1. The section of carriageway of the A13 used for this trial underwent
considerable roadworks during the after period of the trial. The extent of
the works culminated in a 22% increase in KSIs, compared to a 35% fall
in the KSI rate across the TLRN network
5. It is for this reason that the final
report does not consider these data to be valid and therefore the
comparisons in this final report disregard the A13 data, when the
assessment involves either the original control data or the Tanner Test
control.
2. The original control corridor of the A5 runs roughly parallel to the trial site
of the A41. This scenario not only allows comparisons of the casualty
data, but helps understand the migration of P2Ws from the A5 to the A41
trial route (see section 5.2). This comparison of collision rates can only be
undertaken using the A5 and A41 as they largely follow similar routes
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(north west to central London) into London. For comparison of south west
to central London journeys, the report considers the migration to the A23
trial route from the A24, a route which follows in close proximity the A23
trial route.
4.0 Collision Analysis - Before and after data
comparison
The comparisons made in this section use the casualty data collected during the
trial period and documented in Appendices I and II. These two documents share
the same trial route data but differ in the way the control data are derived.
Appendix I derives its data from the empirical evidence gathered from the
original trial control sites and histories. These have been produced following the
most recent review commissioned after the October 2006 Stakeholder seminar.
Appendix II has been compiled from the same before data for comparison with
figures resulting from extrapolations of TLRN statistics (see section 3.3), and
including use of the Tanner formula.
This report focuses on the impact of the measure on casualties in the VRU
groups that may be affected as this is seen as essential to the overall outcome of
the report. To complement this analysis and help understand general trends, all
casualties are also considered.
For each VRU group assessment is carried out of the combined trial routes
against the combined control routes and the Tanner control areas.
As stated in section 3.4.1, concerns have been noted that the reliability and
validity of data from the A13 trial site were adversely affected by the extensive
disruption caused by a major redevelopment program of works. Consequently
the review here concentrates on the trial as a whole but discounts the A13 route.
The comparisons between sums of data from the A5 + A10 control sites, and
sums of data from the A23 + A41 trial sites offer the next most useful
combination of comparable data, after analysis of the A41 and A5 results.
Each VRU group is also assessed using data from the single trial route, the A41
and compared to the single control route the A5 as the A41 trial site runs parallel
to the A5 control site. In many respects this makes data from these sites the
most directly comparable and a potentially useful gauge of the impacts of the
measure. This also enables vehicle usage to be factored in to assist the
comparison as it is vital to note that during the trial, P2W use of the A41 rose
dramatically, whereas P2W use of the A5 control site dwindled. This indicates a
rider preference for routes permitting access to the bus lane (see section 5.2).
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The VRU groups reported on are:
• P2Ws
• Pedal
Cycles
• Pedestrians
• Bus occupants
4.1
Vulnerable Road Users
The assessments contained within sections 4.1.1. to 4.1.4 below consider all
collision types where the casualties (of all severities) have been the respective
vulnerable road user.
Each assessment investigates four scenarios
• A41 trial route against control route A5 and control area using the
Tanner Test control for all times of day.
• A41 trial route against control route A5 and control area using the
Tanner Test control for operating hours only.
• A41 & A23 trial routes combined data against A5 & A10 control routes
combined data and the Tanner Test for all times of day.
• A41 & A23 trial routes combined data against A5 & A10 control routes
combined data and the Tanner Test for operating hours only.
The assessments provide a very useful picture of how the measure performed in
relation to VRUs but the true extent of the benefit from P2W access to bus lanes
is better understood when the migration of P2Ws between the two routes is
factored in (see section 6.0)
4.1.1. Powered Two Wheelers
GRAPH 1
Graph 1
TYPE; P2W casualties, all severities
HOURS: All
Table 4.13 from Appendix I shows
that collisions on the A41 have
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
reduced from 56 to 47 (↓16%) and
the A5 control route is showing a
reduction from 53 to 44 collisions
INCREASE
(↓17%), whilst the Tanner control
area returned a reduction of 23%
(Appendix II, Table 10.13)
16%
17%
23%
The figures show a neutral position
when comparing the A41 the original
control data but a negative benefit
when the Tanner Test is considered.
DECREASE
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GRAPH 2
Graph 2
TYPE; P2W casualties, all severities
HOURS: Operating
Using Tables 4.14 and 10.14 from
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
Appendices I and II respectively the
A41 comparison with the original
control route returns a reduction of
26 collisions to 20 (↓23%) whereas
INCREASE
the data for the control shows 28
collisions before and after (↔0%).
0%
23%
20%
The Tanner Test returned a
reduction of 20%.
The assessment shows the benefit of
DECREASE
the measure to P2Ws during the
operating hours of the measure, although the Tanner Test control reflects a
similar reduction to that of the trial route.
GRAPH 3
Graph 3
Table 4.13 and 10.13 (Appendices I
TYPE; P2W casualties all severities
HOURS: All
and II respectively) provide the
combined information necessary for
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
routes
control routes
this comparison.
The combined trial routes saw a
INCREASE
reduction from 236 to 182 (↓23%)
but the combined control routes
achieved a reduction from 59 to 50
23%
15%
20%
(↓15%).
The Tanner Test showed a reduction
of 20%, less than the trial data.
DECREASE
These figures indicate a benefit to
the safety of P2Ws when assessing the combined routes against the original
control route and a slight benefit against the Tanner control.
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GRAPH 4
Graph 4
TYPE; P2W casualties all severities
The combined route data during
HOURS: Operating
operating hours shows a reduction
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
from 107 to 87 on the trial route
routes
control routes
(↓19%) whereas the control data
returned a reduction from 54 to 48
collisions (↓11%). The Tanner Test
INCREASE
showed a 16% reduction in
collisions.
19%
11%
16%
DECREASE
4.1.1.1. Summary
Using the original control data, the four graphs indicate a safety benefit (not
statistically significant) in three cases, and no benefit when all collisions on the
A41 are considered in isolation.
Using the Tanner control data, the graphs reflect a benefit in three cases but a
negative impact in the fourth.
4.1.2 Pedal
Cycles
GRAPH 5
Graph 5
TYPE;
Pedal cycle casualties, all severities
HOURS: All
Table 3.9 from Appendix I shows that
collisions on the A41 have increased
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
from 20 to 21 (↑5%) and the A5
control route is showing a reduction
from 13 to 11 collisions (↓15%),
INCREASE
whilst the Tanner control area
5%
returned a reduction of
14%.(Appendix II, Table 9.9)
15%
14%
The trial route experienced an
adverse effect when the collisions
during all hours are considered.
DECREASE
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GRAPH 6
Graph 6
Table 3.10 from Appendix I shows
TYPE;
Pedal cycle casualties, all severities
HOURS: Operating
that collisions on the A41 have
decreased from 13 to 12 (↓8%) and
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
the A5 control route shows an
increase from 9 to 10 collisions
(↑11%), whilst the Tanner control
INCREASE
area returned a reduction of 12%
11%
(Appendix II Table 9.10).
8%
12%
DECREASE
GRAPH 7
Graph 7
Table 3.9 and 9.9 (Appendices I and
TYPE; Pedal cycle casualties all severities
HOURS: All
II respectively) provide the combined
information necessary for this
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
routes
control routes
comparison.
The combined trial routes saw a
INCREASE
reduction from 93 to 76 (↓18%) while
the combined control routes only
achieved a reduction from 18 to 14
18%
22%
7%
(↓22%).
The Tanner Test showed a reduction
of 7%, much less than the trial data.
DECREASE
The history of collisions that resulted
in a pedal cyclist being injured on the trial routes has returned a roughly neutral
net benefit when comparing the combined trial routes but a benefit when the
Tanner Test is considered.
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GRAPH 8
Table 3.10 and 9.10 (Appendices I
Graph 8
TYPE; Pedal cycle casualties all severities
and II respectively) provide the
HOURS: Operating
combined information necessary for
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
this comparison.
routes
control routes
The combined trial routes saw a
reduction from 46 to 44 (↓4%) while
INCREASE
9%
the combined control routes
achieved an increase from 11 to 12
(↑9%).
4%
7%
The Tanner Test showed a reduction
of 7%
DECREASE
There is a safety benefit to pedal
cyclists when considering the trial
against the original control data, but a slightly negative position is shown in the
comparison with the Tanner control data.
4.1.2.1. Summary
The two graphs displaying the assessments of injuries to pedal cyclists during
bus lane operating hours both return a benefit (not statistically significant) in the
comparison between the trial route(s) and either control data sets.
Collisions during all hours returned a disbenefit.
As the operating hours assessment shows a benefit it would suggest that the
increase in cyclists’ injuries might not occur during these hours and are therefore
not attributed to the measure.
The above results do not consider the increase in usage, either of pedal cycles
or P2Ws, and with this element factored in, there may be further safety benefits
to consider.
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4.1.3 Pedestrians
GRAPH 9
Graph 9
TYPE;
Pedestrian casualties, all severities
HOURS: All
Table 2.5 from Appendix I shows that
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
collisions on the A41 increased from
41 to 47 (↑15%) while the A5 control
route shows a decrease, from 50 to
INCREASE
44 collisions (↓12%), whilst the
15%
Tanner control area returned a
reduction of 17%.(Appendix II, Table
8.5).
12%
17%
The effect on the measure on
pedestrian casualties shows there to
be a disbenefit when the A41 is
DECREASE
considered against both the original
control data from the A5 and the Tanner test.
GRAPH 10
Graph 10
TYPE; Pedestrian casualties, all severities
Table 2.6 from Appendix I shows that
HOURS: Operating
collisions on the A41 increased from
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
16 to 23 (↑44%) and the A5 control
route also returns an increase, albeit
smaller, from 23 to 24 (↑4%), whilst
the Tanner control area returned a
INCREASE
44%
reduction of 22%.(Appendix II, Table
4%
8.6).
22%
The effect of the measure on
pedestrian casualties shows there to
be a disbenefit when the A41 is
considered against both the original
DECREASE
control data from the A5 and the
Tanner Test.
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GRAPH 11
Graph 11
TYPE; Pedestrian casualties all severities
Table 2.5 and 8.5 (Appendices I and
HOURS: All
II respectively) provide the combined
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
information necessary for this
routes
control routes
comparison.
INCREASE
The combined trial routes saw a
reduction from 206 to 170 (↓17%)
and the combined control routes
achieved a reduction from 66 to 53
17%
20%
17%
(↓20%).
The Tanner Test showed a reduction
of 17%.
DECREASE
The results from the combined trial routes during all hours showed less benefit
when compared to both controls though the difference was marginal against the
Tanner Test.
GRAPH 12
Graph 12
TYPE; Pedestrian casualties all severities
Table 2.6 and 8.6 (Appendices I and
HOURS: Operating
II respectively) provide the combined
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
information necessary for this
routes
control routes
comparison.
The combined trial routes saw a
INCREASE
reduction from 78 to 59 (↓24%) and
the combined control routes
achieved a reduction from 33 to 30
24%
9%
19%
(↓9%).
The Tanner Test showed a reduction
of 19%.
DECREASE
The results from the combined trial
routes during operating hours showed a benefit when compared to the original
control data from the combined routes but the reduction was largely in line with
that achieved by the Tanner Test.
4.1.3.1. Summary
There does not appear to be a straightforward answer when assessing the
results from collisions involving pedestrians.
On the face of it, the overall results from the combined assessments in graphs
11 and 12 suggest a safety benefit. However, when drilling down to the
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performance of the individual routes, the A41 shows a clear disbenefit to
pedestrians which appears to be when the bus lanes are operational. The overall
net benefit is returned because of the relatively larger casualty savings on the
A23.
The problem lies with the pedestrian casualties on the A41 and in order to
understand why, it is necessary to investigate the causation of these crashes
and whether they involved P2Ws.
Further examination of the tables in Appendices I and II shows that of the 16
collisions in the before period on the A41, 3 were attributable to incidents
involving P2Ws and there were 5 in the after period.
Parallel figures from the A5 show a similar return of 3 and 5 respectively. As
there is an apparent increase from both sets, it might be possible that the
increases are attributable to an upturn in usage. Later sections in this report (5.1,
5.2, and 6.2) demonstrate that there was a significant migration of usage of
P2Ws from the A5 to the A41 which, when taken into consideration, delivers a
net safety benefit to pedestrians.
4.1.4 Bus
Occupants
GRAPH 13
Graph 13
TYPE; Bus occupant cas, all severities
HOURS: All
Table 5.17 from Appendix I shows
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
that collisions on the A41 have
decreased from 20 to 17 (↓15%) and
the A5 control route shows a quite
225%
significant increase, from 4 to 13
INCREASE
collisions (↑225%), whilst the Tanner
15%
control area returned an increase of
15% (Appendix II, Table 11.17).
15%
The effect of the measure on bus
occupant casualties shows there to
be a benefit when the A41 is
considered against the original
DECREASE
control data from the A5 but a disbenefit
when the Tanner Test is considered.
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GRAPH 14
Graph 14
TYPE; Bus occupant cas, all severities
Table 5.18 from Appendix I shows
HOURS: Operating
that collisions on the A41 have
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
increased from 6 to 7 (↑17%) but the
A5 control route returns quite a
significant increase, from 4 to 10
150%
INCREASE
collisions (↑150%), whilst the Tanner
28%
control area returned an increase of
17%
28%.(Appendix II, Table 11.18).
When considering operating hours
on the A41 the collisions involving
bus occupants have increased, but
the increase is around 9 times less
DECREASE
than the original control route and
less than the Tanner Test.
GRAPH 15 Table 5.17 and 11.17 (Appendices I
Graph 15
TYPE; Bus occupant cas. all severities
and II respectively) provide the
HOURS: All
combined information necessary for
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
this comparison.
routes
control routes
The combined trial routes saw a
175%
INCREASE
reduction from 105 to 90 (↓14%) but
the combined control routes returned
an increase from 8 to 22 (↑175%).
14%
6%
The Tanner Test showed a reduction
of 6%.
The results from the combined trial
DECREASE
routes during all hours showed a
benefit when compared to the original
control data from the combined routes
but the reduction was only slightly larger
than that achieved by the Tanner Test.
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GRAPH 16
Graph 16
TYPE; Bus occupant cas. all severities
HOURS: Operating
Table 5.18 and 11.18 (Appendices I
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
and II respectively) provide the
routes
control routes
combined information necessary for
this comparison.
157%
INCREASE
The combined trial routes saw a
8%
decrease from 27 to 25 (↓7%) but the
combined control routes returned a
7%
large increase from 7 to 18 (↑157%).
The Tanner Test showed a decrease
of 8%.
DECREASE
The results from the combined trial
routes during operating hours showed
a benefit when compared to the original
control data from the combined routes
and a lesser benefit when compared to
the Tanner Test.
4.1.4.1. Summary
In all cases the trial route(s) have shown a benefit over the original control
routes. The benefit is also apparent against the Tanner Test, though this is much
less clear.
However, there are some increases in the categories and it is necessary to
assess whether these are attributable to the measure. Further scrutiny of Table
5.20, which shows P2W collisions where a bus occupant was injured, reveals
that none of the injuries were caused by collisions with motorcycles.
Therefore it can be stated that there is no adverse effect on the safety of bus
occupants that can be attributed to the measure.
4.1.5 All
Users
As a summary to the casualty analysis section the same assessments are
carried out on the figures collated for all casualties of all types on the trial and
control routes. Graphs 17 to 20, (over page) show the results.
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GRAPH 17
Graph 17
TYPE; All casualties, all severities
Table 1.1 from Appendix I shows that
HOURS: All
collisions on the A41 have decreased
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
from 199 to 177 (↓11%) and the A5
control route shows a decrease from
183 to 171 collisions (↓7%), whilst
INCREASE
the Tanner control area returned a
decrease of 21% (Appendix II, Table
7.1).
7%
11%
All collisions during all hours shows a
21%
safety benefit when considering the
A41 against the original control route,
A5 data. However, there is a
DECREASE
negative safety benefit when the
Tanner Test is considered.
GRAPH 18
Graph 18
TYPE; All casualties, all severities
Table 1.2 from Appendix I shows that
HOURS: Operating
collisions on the A41 have decreased
A41 trial route
A5 control Tanner control
from 75 to 61 (↓19%) but the A5
control route shows an increase from
93 to 97 collisions (↑4%), whilst the
Tanner control area returned a
INCREASE
reduction of 21% (Appendix II, Table
4%
7.2).
19%
21%
There is a clear safety benefit when
considering all collisions in operating
hours against the original control
data. However a slight disbenefit is
DECREASE
returned when the Tanner Test is
considered.
GRAPH 19
Graph 19
TYPE; All casualties all severities
HOURS: All
Table 1.1 and 7.1 (Appendices I and
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
II respectively) provide the combined
routes
control routes
information necessary for this
comparison.
INCREASE
The combined trial routes saw a
reduction from 852 to 670 (↓21%) but
the combined control routes returned
7%
21%
19%
a lesser decrease from 249 to 231
(↓7%).
DECREASE
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The Tanner Test also showed an increase of 19%.
The results from the combined trial routes during all hours showed a safety
benefit when compared to the original control data from the combined routes and
a slight benefit when compared to the Tanner Test.
GRAPH 20
Graph 20
TYPE; All casualties all severities
HOURS: Operating
Table 1.2 and 7.2 (Appendices I and
A41+A23 trial
A5+A10
Tanner control
II respectively) provide the combined
routes
control routes
information necessary for this
comparison.
INCREASE
The combined trial routes saw a
reduction from 302 to 237 (↓22%) but
the combined control routes returned
2%
22%
16%
a lesser decrease from 128 to 126
(↓2%).
The Tanner Test showed a decrease
DECREASE
of 16%.
The results from the combined trial routes during all hours showed safety
benefits of differing degrees when compared to the original control data from the
combined routes and the Tanner Test.
4.1.5.1. Summary
In all the cases examined, the overall situation demonstrates a safety benefit (not
statistically significant) when comparing the trial routes to the original control
routes, and a neutral safety benefit when the assessment uses the Tanner test
for comparison.
4.2 Conclusions – Casualty analysis
P2Ws – The four graphs indicate a safety benefit in three cases, and a neutral
one when the A41 is considered in isolation.
Pedal cycles – The majority of the assessments reflect a safety benefit to users
of pedal cycles because of the measure. The only situation when the results are
adverse is when considering the pedal cyclists’ safety in collisions that occurred
at all hours. However, as the results for the operating hours are favourable, it
would suggest that the increase in cyclists’ injuries occur when bus lanes are not
operational and therefore not attributed to the measure.
Pedestrians – The overall picture demonstrates a safety benefit to pedestrians
from the measure. However, detailed analysis of the individual routes shows that
the A23 performs better than the A41, the latter returning an increase in
casualties. Drilling down further into the cause of the collisions indicates that the
increases might not be attributable to the measure and consequently it could be
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said that a neutral benefit is returned for this route. Pedestrian casualties that
occurred when in conflict with P2Ws reduced by over half in all hours and bus
lane operating hours.
All collisions - The overall situation demonstrates a safety benefit when
considering the trial routes to the original control routes, and a neutral safety
benefit when the assessment uses the Tanner test for comparison.
None of the assessments carried out in this section investigates the potential
impact that the increased usage of P2Ws may have on the results. This is
investigated in section 6.0.
5.0 User and Attitudinal surveys
To understand fully how riders of P2Ws and pedal cycles would adjust to the
measure, vehicle counts before and after the implementation of the measure
were assessed. The attitude of all road users towards the measure was also
investigated using opinion poll surveys
The full report and data sets used can be found in Appendix III, and this section
summarises the effect. The estimated Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) flows
were taken from DfT counters for actual flows along the trial routes. For a
comparison against the general trend in traffic flows, the TfL cordon count data
were used.
5.1 Vehicle
usage
GRAPH 21 Comparison of trial routes and control routes
(Appendix III, Table 8a)
When comparing the trial routes
Graph 21 36 Month before and after data
to the control routes, it can be
Percentage variation in P2W and pedal cycle usage
seen that the P2W riders used
A41 and A23
A5 and A10
Cordon count
the bus lane trial routes
P2Ws
Cyclists
P2Ws
Cyclists P2Ws
Cyclists
considerably more than in the
36 months before, and
considerably less on the
INCREASE
26%
24%
adjacent A5 control route. In
fact a 26% increase was
10%
10%
recorded on the A41 and A23
combined with a corresponding
4%
28% decrease on the A5 and
28%
A10. This compares with a
minor decrease (4%) in the
general trend of usage across
DECREASE
the inner cordon.
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The measure does not seem to have affected pedal cycle use too adversely as
their use on the trial routes continued in line with the general trend figures, but
the control routes did seem to experience a larger increase in usage than the
cordon count data.
5.2 Migration
The potential for migration of P2Ws and indeed cyclists to or away from the trial
routes must be understood in order to gauge the impact this might have when
comparing casualty statistics.
To assess both trial routes it is necessary to compare user rates with a similar
route that follows the trial route in relatively close proximity. Consequently, the
data of the A41 were compared to the control route A5 corridor. However, the
path of the A23 in south west London bears no similarities to that of the other
control route, the A10. Therefore, for this exercise only, a new data set was
introduced to enable a more accurate comparison and that was collected from
AADT flows on the A24 in south west London.
A5 to A41 (GRAPH 22)
(Appendix III, Table10a)
Graph 22 36 Month before and after data
Percentage variation in P2P usage
The numbers of powered two
A41 Trial route
A5 control
Cordon count
wheelers using the A41
P2Ws
Cyclists
P2Ws
Cyclists P2Ws
Cyclists
increased significantly, by 34%
against the A5 decrease of 7%
and overall trend figures which
INCREASE
showed a 4% decrease. This
would suggest that P2W riders
10%
34%
19%
21%
were altering their journey and
joining the A41 from routes
4%
7%
other than the A5.
The pedal cycle figures show
the number of cyclists increased
DECREASE
by 19% and 21% on the A41
and A5 respectively which compares to the trend figure of +10%. These results
suggest that the inclusion of P2Ws in the bus lanes has not obviously deterred
cyclists from using them.
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A24 to A23 (GRAPH 23)
(Appendix III, table 11a)
Graph 23 36 Month before and after data
Percentage variation in P2P usage
The use of PTWs increased
A23 Trial route
A24 “control”
on the A23 by 16% and a
Cordon count
P2Ws
Cyclists
P2Ws
Cyclists P2Ws
Cyclists
lesser increase was
experienced by the A24 (9%).
Both these increases were
disproportionate to the cordon
INCREASE
9%
counts which recorded a drop
16%
5%
10%
of 4%.
1%
4%
Pedal cycling activity recorded
an increase of 5% which was
not as large as the general
trend but when compared
DECREASE
against a drop of 1% on the
A24 suggests that again the
cyclists have probably not been
deterred by the presence of P2Ws
in the bus lanes. The cordon
count reflected an increase of 10%
in usage.
5.2.1 Migration
summary
There has been a significant increase in the number of P2W journeys recorded
on the trial routes. In the case of the A41, the swing from the A5 is 41% and
when compared to the trend the swing still achieved a 38% shift.
Pedal cycle usage also increased more than the trend with a net 9% swing
recorded.
The A23 followed suit albeit to a lesser extent, with a net increase of 7% over the
A24, and cycle usage seeing a 6% increase. The impact of these increases is
investigated in section 6.0.
5.3 Opinion
surveys
Opinion surveys on behalf of TfL were made available for this study. Studies
targeted motorcyclists, cyclists, bus drivers, car drivers, pedestrians and the
general public and details of all surveys can be found in Appendix III.
The surveys did not reveal many surprises in their findings with only
motorcyclists and car drivers (who are not bus users) being the two user groups
who approved of the measure.
Amongst VRUs. the main reason for disapproval of the measure was their
perception of the compromise to safety.
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The findings also showed that pedal cyclists are viewed by bus drivers as being
the most problematic of all road users.
It must be noted that the small size of the response groups to some of the
surveys might not be representative of that groups’ opinion.
5.4
Speeds and bus journey times
One concern for the introduction of the measure relates to the potential for the
delay to buses, which obviously contradicts the commitment in the Mayor’s
Transport Strategy for the expeditious movement of public transport.
The assessment of the impact of the measure on the speed of buses has to rely
on the only “before and after” comparisons that were available. These were
presented in the Original trial report
3 and are detailed below.
This “before” and “after” data (Table 1 - shown below) only provides 18 months
figures but is sufficient enough to make a valid comparison.
Table 1 – Before and After speed data from Original Trial report
The table demonstrates that the bus speeds increased in all cases but when
assessing this data the following must be considered,
• The “before” P2W speeds in the trial bus lanes and the “before” and
“after” speeds from the control routes are based on illegal usage of the
lanes by P2Ws and cannot be considered representative
The Original Trial Report also reported that bus journey times fell by 1 to 2
minutes on the A13 and A41, but increased by 1 minute on the A23. The
document states that the following must be considered,
• The A13 bus routes were affected by roadworks
• The A23 journey times were affected by changes to the bus route
The Extended Trial Report carried out a more detailed assessment of the bus
journey times on the three trial and two control routes and is included in
Appendix III.
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The data sets were collected using the “Marquis” roadside beacon infrastructure
that records the time of each bus that passes.
The report states that there was
• “
remarkable consistency in average speed provided by bus lanes”
• “
Most routes have seen an improvement in reliability” culminating in a
“
range in journey time of just two minutes on a 30 minute journey”
though it wasn’t stated that this was as a result of the trial.
However the reliability of this data is subject to the following:
• The start date for the collection of the data is April 2004, 18 months after
the implementation of the trial routes.
• There is no before and after comparison of journey times from these data
sets.
• The journey times recorded do not consider the effect of the length of time
spent at each stop due to the number of passengers alighting or
disembarking.
5.5
Conclusions - usage, speeds and attitudinal surveys
The measure is undoubtedly very popular with P2W users. This is evident from
the results from the opinion surveys and the increase in usage of the trial routes -
a net increase of 54% against the control routes and a net 30% increase against
the general trend were recorded.
Pedal cyclists, whilst generally in opposition to the measure continued to use the
trial bus routes in numbers that increased in line with the general trend.
There is a significant element of migration from adjacent routes to the trial
routes. This effect on the collision numbers on the trial routes is investigated
further in section 6.0.
The data available to assess the impact of the measure on bus speeds and
journey times is too limited for robust analysis but would suggest that the
measure does not hinder the expeditious movement of buses or other vehicles.
6.0 Collision
Rates
The issues to consider are the casualty numbers and the number of vehicles
using the routes. One of the advantages of returning to the original control data
is that it can be compared with the traffic flows along a route. The comparisons
will be made with the collision histories for all hours of the day as AADT flows
cannot specify bus lane operating hours.
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This section considers the impact of the measure and the comparisons give a
collision rate in the form of the number of collisions per 10,000 P2W journeys.
Appendix III contains the full tables but a summary involving each user group is
contained here.
The analysis focuses on those collisions where it has been specified that a P2W
was involved with a user from another group, and all collisions involving a
specific user group. All summaries include collisions of all severities.
As an overview the first summary (Graphs 24 and 25) shows the results of all
collisions.
6.1
All P2W collision rates
GRAPH 24 shows the collision
Graph 24 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
rate summary for the combined
trial routes compared to the
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41and A23,
Control: A5 and A10
combined control route data for
all collision type and all casualty
COL TYPE
ALL
types
CAS TYPE
ALL
SEVERITY
ALL
The casualty numbers reduced
by around 21% and the control
reduced by 7% (Graph 19).
TRIAL
CONTROL
However, when the usage rate
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
is factored in, the savings in
5.0
casualties become more
JOURNEYS
obvious, with the collisions rate
dropping by 42% due to the
3.99
,
000 P2W
increase in P2W journeys.
10
-42%
+19%
Whilst there was a small
2.33
2.20
1.84
decrease in the corresponding
ONS OER
collision numbers for the control
routes, when the reduced flows
COLLISI
are considered, the collision
rate increases by 19%.
This equates to the following:
Trial route crash rates being equivalent to:
1 collision every 2,506 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 collision every 4,287 journeys AFTER the trial started.
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And on the control routes:
1 collision every 5,427 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 collision every 4,546 journeys AFTER the trial started.
GRAPH 25 gives details of the
combined route results for all
Graph 25 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
collisions where the casualty
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41and A23,
Control: A5 and A10
type was defined as a P2W.
COL TYPE
ALL
The trial and control routes saw
a drop in collision numbers of
CAS TYPE
P2W
26% and 8% respectively
SEVERITY
ALL
(Appendix I, Table 1.3).
TRIAL
CONTROL
However, the collision rates
show that collisions became
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
much less frequent in the trial,
1.5
down by 45% whilst the control
JOURNEYS
routes experienced a 19%
increase in their frequency.
1.20
,
000 P2W
-45%
This equates to the following:
10
+19%
0.66
0.56
Trial route crash rates being
0.47
ONS OER
equivalent to:
1 collision every 8,308 P2W
COLLISI
journeys BEFORE the trial
started.
1 collision every 15,117 journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control routes:
1 collision every 21,113 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 collision every 17,798 journeys AFTER the trial started.
6.1.1 Summary
The net 61% reduction in the collision rate when comparing the combined trial
routes to combined control routes indicates a benefit in introducing the measure.
The benefit is even greater (64%) when considering the collisions in which the
casualties included a P2W rider.
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6.2
Pedestrian collision rates
GRAPH 26 shows the results
from the combined routes, both
Graph 26 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
for trial and control for all
collisions involving pedestrians.
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41and A23,
Control: A5 and A10
COL TYPE
ALL
Actual collision numbers fell for
both from 206 to 170 for the
CAS TYPE
PEDS
trial route, and from 66 to 53 on
SEVERITY
ALL
the control route. (Appendix 1,
Table 2.5)
TRIAL
CONTROL
This equates to a 17% and 20%
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
drop respectively (Graph 11).
1.0
JOURNEYS
The rate of collisions again
0.96
favours the trial routes due to
-39%
the significant increase in the
,
000 P2W
+3%
usage of the routes and a
10
0.59
reduction of 39% is returned for
0.49
0.50
the trial whilst a 3% increase is
recorded for the control.
ONS OER
This equates to the following:
COLLISI
Trial route crash rates being
equivalent to:
1 pedestrian collision every 10,365 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every 16,895 journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control routes:
1 pedestrian collision every 20,473 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every 19,813 journeys AFTER the trial started.
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GRAPH 27 shows the results from
the combined routes, both for trial
Graph 27 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
and control and examines the
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41and A23,
Control: A5 and A10
situations that involved collisions
between P2Ws and pedestrians.
COL TYPE
P2Ws
Actual collision numbers fell on the
CAS TYPE
PEDS
trial routes from 33 to 24 (↓27%),
but rose from 10 to 13 (↑23%) on
SEVERITY
ALL
the control routes (see Appendix I,
Table 2.7).
TRIAL
CONTROL
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
These percentages change to
0.2
reflect a 46% reduction in collisions
JOURNEYS
between P2Ws and pedestrians on
the combined trial routes but a 40%
increase in collisions on the control
0.15
,
000 P2W
routes.
10
-46%
+40%
0.12
0.08
This equates to the following:
0.07
ONS OER
Trial route crash rates being
equivalent to
COLLISI
1 pedestrian collision every 64,705
P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every
119,674 journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control routes:
1 pedestrian collision every 135,123 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every 80,777 journeys AFTER the trial started.
As stated in 4.1.3.1 the A41 warrants investigation in isolation as the combined
figures for the trial routes screens a possible safety problem for pedestrians on
the A41. The analysis of casualty rates in Graphs 28 and 29 assess this
situation.
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GRAPH 28 shows the results from
Graph 28 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
the A41 trial route and the A5
control route, and examines the
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41,
Control: A5
situations that involved all collisions
COL TYPE
ALL
with pedestrian casualties.
CAS TYPE
PEDS
Actual collision numbers increased
on the A41 from 41 to 47 (↑15%),
SEVERITY
ALL
but fell from 50 to 44 (↓12%) on the
A5 control route (see Appendix I,
TRIAL
CONTROL
Table 2.5).
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
These percentages change to
1.0
reflect a 24% reduction in collisions
JOURNEYS
between P2Ws and pedestrians on
the A41 and a 6% decrease in
-6%
collisions on the A5.
,
000 P2W
0.69
10
0.65
-24%
0.38
This equates to the following:
ONS OER
0.29
Trial route crash rates being
COLLISI
equivalent to:
1 pedestrian collision every 26,066 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every 34,225 journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control routes:
1 pedestrian collision every 14,498 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every 15,355 journeys AFTER the trial started.
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GRAPH 29 assesses the results
from the A41 trial route and the
Graph 29 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
A5 control route, and examines
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41,
Control: A5
the situations that involved P2W
collisions with pedestrian
COL TYPE
P2Ws
casualties.
CAS TYPE
PEDS
Actual collision numbers
SEVERITY
ALL
increased on the A41 from 5 to 11
(↑120%), and from 5 to 7 (↑30%)
on the A5 control route (see
TRIAL
CONTROL
Appendix I, Table 2.7).
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
0.1
These percentages change to
JOURNEYS
0.10
reflect a 46% increase in
+50%
collisions between P2Ws and
pedestrians on the A41 and a
,
000 P2W
+46%
0.07
0.07
similar (50%) increase in
10
0.05
collisions on the A5.
ONS OER
This equates to the following:
Trial route crash rates being
COLLISI
equivalent to:
1 pedestrian collision every 213,744 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every 146,232 P2W journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control routes:
1 pedestrian collision every 144,978 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedestrian collision every 96,518 P2Wjourneys AFTER the trial started.
6.2.1 Summary
The number of collisions in which pedestrians were casualties reduced by 17%
on the trial routes compared to 20% on the control routes. This suggests the
measure did not benefit pedestrian safety. However, when the migration of
P2Ws away from the control routes to the trial routes is considered, the
frequency of collisions which resulted in pedestrian casualties reduced by 39%
but increased by 3% on the control.
The reduction in collision rate involving P2Ws in which pedestrians were injured
was 46% and but the rate increased by 40% on the control. These results are not
statistically significant but do suggest the measure benefits pedestrians.
However, as stated in 4.1.3.1, the analysis of the casualty figures for the A41 in
isolation needs to be assessed as this saw a rise in collisions involving
pedestrians. This issue was investigated and the results displayed in Graphs 28
and 29.
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These results show that the potential compromise in safety for pedestrians is
negated when the migration issue is considered. All collisions where pedestrians
were hurt showed a reduction in the casualty rate of 24% on the A41 whereas
the A5 control only achieved a 6% reduction. When the P2W/pedestrian collision
rate is considered the trial route increased by 46%, which was a smaller increase
than the control which returned a 50% increase.
None of the results in this assessment are statistically significant.
6.3
Pedal cycle collision rates
GRAPH 30 Assessment of the
Graph 30 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
pedal cycle casualties shows a
decrease in collisions involving
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41and A23,
Control: A5 and A10
them from 93 to 76 (↓18%) on
the trial routes and 18 to 14 on
COL TYPE
ALL
the control routes (↓22%), (see
CAS TYPE
CYCLES
Appendix I, Table 3.9).
SEVERITY
ALL
These figures suggest that there
is a disbenefit to pedal cycles
TRIAL
CONTROL
from the measure when the
number of collisions is
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
compared in isolation, but a
0.5
distinct benefit in that the
JOURNEYS
collision rate is down a net 39%
0.44
on the trial routes.
-39%
,
000 P2W
10
This equates to the following:
0.26
0%
Trial route crash rates being
ONS OER
0.13
equivalent to:
0.13
COLLISI
1 pedal cycle collision every 22,960 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedal cycle collision every 37,792 journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control routes:
1 pedal cycle collision every 75,068 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedal cycle collision every 75,008 journeys AFTER the trial started.
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GRAPH 31 shows the results
from the combined routes, both
Graph 31 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
for trial and control and
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41and A23,
Control: A5 and A10
examines the situations that
involved collisions between
COL TYPE
P2W
P2Ws and pedal cycles.
CAS TYPE
CYCLES
Actual collision numbers fell on
SEVERITY
ALL
the trial routes from 4 to 3
(↓25%), but rose from 0 to 1
TRIAL
CONTROL
(↑∞%) on the control routes
(see Appendix I, Table 3.11).
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
0.025
0.99
These figures suggest that
JOURNEYS
there is no net benefit to pedal
+∞%
cycles from the measure, but
this changes to a benefit
,
000 P2W
10
0.02
greater than 44% when the
-44%
collision rates are considered.
ONS OER
0.01
A closer scrutiny reveals that
0.0
there was a slight increase in
the collisions involving cyclists
COLLISI
on the A41 (20 to 21) but in order to put it in context the rates were assessed in
Graph 32.
This equates to the following:
Trial route crash rates being equivalent to:
1 pedal cycle collision every 533,813 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedal cycle collision every 957,395 journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control routes:
1 pedal cycle collision every 13,512,300 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedal cycle collision every 1,050,105 journeys AFTER the trial started.
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GRAPH 32 shows the results from the A41 trial route and A5 control route, for all
collisions involving pedal cycles.
Actual collision numbers rose
on the trial routes from 20 to 21
Graph 32 Collision rate (collisions per 10,000 P2W trips)
(↑5%), but fell from 13 to 11
(↓15%) on the A5 control routes
ROUTE(S)
Trial: A41,
Control: A5
(see Appendix I, Table 3.9).
COL TYPE
ALL
These figures suggest that
CAS TYPE
CYCLES
there is no net benefit to pedal
cycles from the measure, but
SEVERITY
ALL
this changes to a benefit
because when the migration of
TRIAL
CONTROL
P2Ws to the A41 is considered,
BEFORE AFTER
BEFORE AFTER
the collision rate is down a net
22% on the trial routes. This
0.2
benefit is further increased
JOURNEYS
when the control (which
returned a 9% increase) is
,
000 P2W
+9%
considered.
10
-22%
0.11
0.096
0.09
Trial route crash rates being
0.07
equivalent to:
ONS OER
1 pedal cycle collision every
COLLISI
106,763 P2W journeys
BEFORE the trial started.
1 pedal cycle collision every 136,771 journeys AFTER the trial started.
And on the control route:
1 pedal cycle collision every 103,941 P2W journeys BEFORE the trial started
1 pedal cycle collision every 95,464 journeys AFTER the trial started
6.3.1 Summary
The collision rate has been assessed for the combined trial and control routes
and a net safety benefit is apparent in all cases, with the collision rate reducing
by 44% when considering collisions involving P2Ws and pedal cycles being the
largest.
When the A41 is considered in isolation there was a marginal increase in the
actual collision numbers (20 to 21). The collision rates demonstrate that all
collisions in which a pedal cyclist is injured become more infrequent with a net
reduction of 22% in collision rates.
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6.4
Conclusions - collision rates
The collision rate analyses indicate that there is a safety benefit for all vulnerable
road users.
The trial routes benefit from a 42% reduction in collision rates for all collisions
and the benefit is even greater (45%) when considering the collisions in which
the casualties included a P2W rider. Both these results are against a 19%
increase in the control routes.
For pedestrians, the benefit is most apparent when the migration of P2Ws away
from the control routes to the trial routes is considered, a net reduction in
pedestrian casualties in all collisions of 39% can be seen (against a 3% increase
in the control routes casualty rate. In fact the net reduction in collisions involving
P2Ws in which pedestrians were injured was greater at 46% against the control
routes’ 40% increase. This suggests the measure benefits pedestrians.
For pedal cyclists, the collision rates show a 44% when considering collisions
involving P2Ws and pedal cycles.
The analyses also produce figures for the frequency of crashes according to the
number of trips by a P2W. These figures in all cases demonstrate that crashes
involving P2Ws and other vulnerable road users become more infrequent even
when considering the increased concentration of riders on the trial routes due to
the migration effect.
7.0 Experiences from other schemes
During the last eleven years, P2W access to bus lanes has been successfully
trialled or introduced as a permanent measure in a number of locations
throughout the UK.
The first Local Authority to implement this measure was Bristol, following a trial
scheme. Deployment of this measure in the City of Bristol has continued since
1996.
By the end of 2006, seventeen UK local authorities
6 had introduced this measure
in varying forms, and it is also deployed as a permanent measure throughout
Northern Ireland. The primary reason of all schemes is to improve road safety.
Indeed, there are also a number of schemes that have been implemented in
London by TfL and some London boroughs.
A growing number of European towns and cities deploy this measure for road
safety purposes. Motorcycles have been allowed in the bus lanes of Sweden’s
capital, Stockholm, since 1986, and the same approach has been successfully
adopted in Barcelona in Spain and some Italian cities.
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As far as could be established by the authors, no trial of P2W in bus lanes
anywhere in the UK – or anywhere else in the world – has ever resulted in a
rejection of the measure for safety reasons. Similarly, in all known trials to date,
once P2W access to bus lanes has been granted, such access has never been
subsequently rescinded.
Since the TfL trial started, the DfT published ‘The Government's Motorcycling
Strategy’
7 which followed a five year study by the Government Advisory Group
for Motorcycling (GAGM). In essence, government and the DfT now formally
acknowledge that the P2W mode has vital contributions to make in developing
sustainable transport throughout Britain. The P2W offers an extremely efficient
and low financial cost alternative to four wheeler modes in many situations where
walking, cycling or public transport cannot meet demand for transporting people
and goods.
The national strategy document makes it clear that more can and should be
done by Local Transport Planning authorities to improve the safe use of P2Ws
throughout the UK.
The principle aim of this major nationwide policy initiative is to ‘mainstream’
motorcycling. In particular it says that taking account of motorcycling is to play a
greater part in plans for road design and traffic management.
7.1
Bus Lane trials in London – M4 motorway
Aside from the trials that are the subject of this report, a number of trial and
permanent schemes have been implemented in London.
Perhaps the most high profile of these is the offside bus lane implemented on the
eastbound carriageway of the M4 motorway from Junction 3 to the elevated
section.
In July 2002 the eastbound carriageway speed limit was increased to 60mph
from 50mph and motorcycles were allowed to use the offside bus lane. The site
was monitored by TfL’s London Road Safety Unit who undertook a 36 month
before and after study.
The study showed that the number of collisions involving injury decreased from
44 in the 36 months to July 2002 to 28 in the 36 months after. This decrease of
36% was found to be statistically significant at the 10% level using the K test
8.
Collisions involving P2Ws reduced by nearly twice as much – from 12 to 4 which
equates to 67%.
7.2
Other London borough schemes
There have been other trials in three London boroughs, Westminster, Kingston
and Richmond. Table 2 gives a summary of the performance of each scheme.
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In September 2005 the City of Westminster authority introduced the measure in
the form of a trial on a total of ten lengths of bus lane. The overall impact
suggests that there are safety benefits for all vulnerable road users. In the 14
months of the measure, the figures have returned a 24% reduction in pedestrian
casualties, and 17% reduction for both pedal cycles and P2Ws.
There are four schemes introduced in the Royal Borough of Kingston, with two
having collected 36 months after data sets and two with 31 months data sets.
The collective casualty figures have shown reductions for all vulnerable road
users with pedestrian casualties down by 17%, P2Ws down by 29% and pedal
cycle casualties down by 50%.
Two schemes have been introduced in one of Kingston’s neighbours, Richmond.
These schemes have been operating for 31 months and have seen a 33%
reduction in pedestrian casualties, and 67% reduction in P2W casualties. There
has, however, been an increase from 0 to 3 in pedal cycle injuries.
None of these schemes has been implemented against a control area so no
comparison can be made with the general trends. However, it does give an
indication that the measure in differing scenarios can provide safety benefits to
vulnerable road users in the vast majority of cases.
7.3
UK schemes outside London
There has not been a trial of the measure in the UK that has undertaken a
comprehensive “before and after” casualty analysis using control sites. The
majority of studies failed to introduce trial routes and supplement the data with
vehicle usage surveys and journey times. However, some useful studies have
been undertaken which have been assessed using differing methodologies over
the last decade.
Avon County Council first resolved to introduce motorcycles to bus lanes in
Bristol using an Experimental Order on 14th February 1995. The experimental
order came into effect in June of that year and was confirmed as a Permanent
Order on 12th March 1996 when the Committee, anticipating the imminent Local
Government Reorganisation, strongly recommended that its four successor
Unitary Authorities should extend the scheme to their areas (which each has
subsequently done).
There has been much written on the Bristol scheme but the evidence recently
given to the aforementioned Transport Select Committee by the Motorcycle
Industry Association (MCIA) probably sums the results most succinctly.
“During the 36 months prior to the implementation, accidents involving
motorcyclists averaged 1.1 per month, compared to 0.8 during the six-months of
the experiment, suggesting a 25% decrease, and that no motorcycle accidents
were recorded in the bus lanes and no collisions with pedestrians or cyclists
were recorded”.
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The same evidence also stated that “
an 18-month experiment by Sheffield City
Council during 2003/04 which also reported a 25% decrease in monthly average
motorcycle accidents.”
7.4
Conclusions – experiences from other schemes
No trials in the UK have been removed for safety reasons, though there have not
been any comprehensive casualty analysis trials undertaken.
The trials that have occurred have shown a reduction in casualties by up to 25%
though none of the trials has used a control for objective comparison with
collisions after its introduction.
Since 2002, authorities in London have recently embarked on implementing a
variety of trials, the most significant of which was the eastbound M4 offside bus
lane which returned a 67% reduction in P2W injuries and a statistically significant
36% reduction in all collisions despite simultaneously increasing the speed limit.
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Table 2 Before and after collisions for borough P2W in bus lane schemes at all times (by November 2006 data provisional)
N.B. This is for all hours/days and not just the bus lane hours of operation.
Boroug
h
Scheme
name
Months
Collisions Before
Collisions After
Change in collisions (Numeric)
Fat Ser
Sli Pedn P2W PC
Tot
Fat Ser
Sli Pedn P2W PC
Tot
Fat
Ser
Sli Pedn
P2W
PC
Tot
Westminster Cockspur
Street
14
0
1
12
6
0
3
13
1
0
7
5
1
0
8
1
-1
-5
-1
1
-3
-5
Westminster Kensington
Gore
14
0
0
3
0
0
0
3
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
-3
0
1
0
-2
Westminster Kensington
Road
14
0
2
8
2
6
1
10
0
3
3
1
1
2
6
0
1
-5
-1
-5
1
-4
Westminster Knightsbridge
14
0
0
4
2
3
0
4
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
-3
-2
-3
0
-3
Westminster Baker
Stree
t
14
0
1
14
6
3
1
15
0
0
10
3
3
1
10
0
-1
-4
-3
0
0
-5
Westminster Haymarket
14
0
2
10
5
2
2
12
1
1
8
3
1
3
10
1
-1
-2
-2
-1
1
-2
Westminster Bayswater
Road
14
0
2
1
3
0
0
3
0
1
4
0
2
1
5
0
-1
3
-3
2
1
2
Westminster
Piccadilly (SW end)
14
1
0
6
1
2
1
7
0
2
5
3
3
1
7
-1
2
-1
2
1
0
0
Westminster Piccadil y
(NE
end)
14
0
5
30
14
7
3
35
0
4
23
13
6
2
27
0
-1
-7
-1
-1
-1
-8
Westminster Gloucester
Place
14
0
1
6
2
1
1
7
0
1
9
3
2
0
10
0
0
3
1
1
-1
3
Kingston Cambridge
Road
36
0
0
8
2
1
2
8
0
0
6
2
2
0
6
0
0
-2
0
1
-2
-2
Kingston Cambridge
Road
36
1
6
25
7
8
2
32
0
8
22
7
9
3
30
-1
2
-3
0
1
1
-2
Kingston
London Road (SB)
31
0
0
6
2
3
0
6
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
-5
-2
-3
0
-5
Kingston
London Road (NB)
31
0
0
11
1
5
2
11
0
2
4
1
1
0
6
0
2
-7
0
-4
-2
-5
Richmond
London Road, TW10
31
0
1
7
3
1
0
8
0
1
5
2
2
2
6
0
0
-2
-1
1
2
-2
Richmond Eton
Street
31
0
0
10
3
5
0
10
0
0
5
2
0
1
5
0
0
-5
-1
-5
1
-5
Total
2
21
161
59
47
18
184
2
24
113
45
34
16
139
0
3
-48
-14
-13
-2
-45
%
change
0% 14%
-30% -24%
-28%
-11%
-24%
Total for
schemes in
Westminster
1
14
94
41
24
12 109
2
13
70
31
20
10
85
1
-1
-24
-10
-4
-2
-24
%
change
100%
-7%
-26% -24%
-17%
-17%
-22%
Total for
schemes in
Kingston
1
6
50
12
17
6
57
0
10
33
10
12
3
43
-1
4
-17
-2
-5
-3
-14
%
change
-100% 67%
-34% -17%
-29%
-50%
-25%
Total schemes
in Richmond
0
1
17
6
6
0
18
0
1
10
4
2
3
11
0
0
-7
-2
-4
3
-7
%
change
0%
0%
-41% -33%
-66%
300%
-39%
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8.0 Conclusions
8.1 Context
It is anticipated that the impact of this TfL study will extend beyond Greater London.
Although the experiment was designed to generate evidence that is specifically
related to P2W use of bus lanes in the capital (and indeed only those on the TLRN),
the results are likely to be of great significance for all authorities with interests in
improving road safety in relation to P2W use. Interest in this study has been
expressed throughout the UK and internationally.
The evidence from this experiment offers more information about the impact of
allowing P2W access to bus lanes than any study to date. Nevertheless, it is vital to
recognise the scope and limitations of this test of a potential enhancement to road
safety in a live experiment with several significant other variables; one of the most
important being changes in highway usage by different modes during the
investigation.
A key factor to consider is that this test is of what happens when P2W access is
permitted in one bus lane at a time – in a system of roads with bus lanes where P2W
use is prohibited. Analysis of changes in mode use shows that deployment of the
measure on one road prompted significant migration of P2W riders to that trial site –
and away from other routes without the measure. In some ways this allows the
experiment to assess an extreme scenario regarding fears that the measure may
have adverse effects on other vulnerable road users. This aspect of method does
however limit the extent to which the trial precisely replicates what happens when
the measure is deployed throughout a bus lane network, as is the practice in various
cities such as Bristol.
Changing the methodology for generating control data for the experiment during the
second 18 month phase of the trial gave rise to problems. It rekindled initial
questions about the experiment design, and generated new concerns among some
stakeholders that the clarity, reliability and validity of results and conclusions might
be reduced from optimum levels.
In addition to concerns about changes in control method, questions focused on the
scientific value of data collected from attitudinal surveys. Queries also arose
regarding the collection of speed and journey time data and vehicle usage of the
actual bus lanes themselves.
TfL has addressed such questions and concerns with freshly focused action and this
final report results from that action. The suite of reports and these conclusions are
made in response to input from all concerned with the experiment, inside and
outside TfL, and to optimise the value of the study to all parties interested in
improving road safety for all road users.
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8.2
Control method changes
It can be argued that the Tanner Test calculations, to extrapolate figures for control
data on casualties, offer a more statistically robust outcome than use of figures from
control sites that are of correspondingly small size to trial sites.
However, what the Tanner method cannot do is allow for any fluctuations in vehicle
usage, and therefore cannot account for the impact of migration on the results to be
used in assessing the impacts of the measure under test.
The original control data method does allow direct comparisons between adjacent
routes for trial and control, and it allows the influence of migration to be taken into
account when analysing the impact of the measure on casualty numbers and rates.
It must be stated that because of the small size of all the data sets (even when the
Tanner control was applied), none of the results returned were statistically
significant.
8.3 Findings
8.3.1 Opinion
surveys
The views collected from the opinion surveys were as expected.
Powered two wheeler riders responding to the survey favoured the measure as they
felt it made the network safer for them.
Pedestrian and cyclist respondents expressed more negative views, formed by
expectations that they would be less safe.
Bus driver respondents indicated a preference for sharing bus lane road space with
P2Ws rather than pedal cycles.
8.3.2 Cyclists
The evidence from casualty and collision data shows that cyclists’ concerns that their
casualty rates would rise, and use of their mode would decline, were unfounded in
practice.
The evidence from trial site casualty and usage data and comparisons with control
sites shows that the safety records for cyclists significantly improved where the
measure was deployed. Results also show that cycling rose on trial sites – despite
the presence of P2W riders in bus lanes and a significantly above average rise in
P2W use of trial routes.
The report concludes from the evidence that conditions for cyclists did not
significantly deteriorate as expected by some. User levels for the mode did not
decline on trial routes, and casualty numbers and rates reduced.
In practice, results indicate that the measure has benefits to cycling safety and
coincides with rising cycle use. The experiment found no discernible evidence of
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P2Ws in bus lanes Main Report
practical disbenefits, although there were indications that some cyclists did not like
the idea of sharing use of bus lanes with P2W riders.
8.3.3 Pedestrians
The sum of casualty evidence shows that fears of significant rises in pedestrian
injuries during the three year trial were not well founded, with the overall figures
demonstrating a significant net safety benefit to pedestrians when considering the
collision rates.
When looking at the actual casualty numbers from the individual trial routes without
considering the migration issue, the experiences have been conflicting. In one trial
site, pedestrian casualties from P2W collisions halved (A23), and in the other they
doubled (A41).
It is possible to conclude that the A41 data shows what happens when a dramatic,
and significantly above average rise in P2W use is focused on the one and only site
where access to bus lanes is allowed, and where the number of pedestrians may be
increasing.
The evidence shows that, overall, deployment of the measure has a net beneficial
impact on pedestrian collision rates. Results also prove that this improvement is
greater during operating hours when the measure can have maximum impact.
8.3.4 Bus
occupants
There is no evidence from the experiment to indicate that the measure has any
significant impact on bus occupants.
8.3.5 Powered Two Wheelers
The evidence from the trial indicates that the measure has allowed P2W riders on
the trial routes to experience an increased level of safety that is not experienced
elsewhere on the network. This is reinforced by the fact that there was migration
from other routes.
8.4
Change in use by modes
P2W use of trial sites rose significantly in contrast to control sites and the average
rise in use of the mode in London during the trial period.
The evidence of change in P2W usage between trial and control sites may be taken
as a good indicator that P2W users recognise access to bus lanes as a safety
enhancing measure.
The evidence also sheds informative light on concerns that deployment of the
measure could encourage more motorcycling generally. However, evidence of
preferences for the trial routes does not indicate that deployment of the measure
prompts a rise in preference for modal shift to P2W use.
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The rise in P2W use of trial routes resulted primarily from riders abandoning
journeys on the adjacent routes, and that the extent of such changes ranged from
25% to 40%.
The evidence suggests that the measure does address an acute need to improve
P2W rider safety, and without encouraging a corresponding increase in P2W use
above existing rates of rising usage.
8.5 Summary
The comparisons of collisions involving VRUs using the Tanner control showed
neither a benefit nor disbenefit from the introduction of the measure. None of the
results from any of the user group comparisons were statistically significant.
When the VRU collisions were assessed against the original control routes, a net
benefit to all groups was returned. However, included in this reduction were localised
increases in pedestrian casualties on the A41. None of the results were statistically
significant.
When the collision rates were analysed (ie taking into consideration the increase in
usage of P2Ws) there was a safety benefit to all VRUs with no localised increases in
collisions.
Transport for London - September 2007
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