Richard Clarkson

International Networks Analysis & Support

Department for Transport

Zone 1/24

Great Minster House

76 Marsham Street

London

SW1P 4DR

Direct Line: 44 (0) 20 7944 2764

Our Ref: E0006237

Web Site: www.dft.gov.uk

7th April 2010

Dear Mr Todd,

Thank you for your email of 28^th March. It refers to your original request, received on 23^rd February for:

I can confirm that I am handling all of your requests under the EIRs. This is because, as you note in your request, all of the modules cited in your request are linked as part of the Department's UK air passenger demand and CO2 forecasting framework which produces information falling under the definition of 'environmental information'. However I have also had regard to the Department's obligations under the FOI Act.

The reason that I have extended the time limit for responding to your requests relates to your requests 3 and 4 above. Responding to these requests meaningfully would involve the Department incurring significant costs. I am therefore in the process of performing a public interest test to determine whether the public interest factors in favour of release exceed the factors against.

The Department's response to your first two requests is as follows:

Request 1

The Departmental team responsible for managing the operation and development of the Department's UK aviation forecasting and appraisal modelling suite is International Networks Analysis and Support (INAS) Division. The Department also commissions Scott Wilson Group Plc, a consultancy firm, to maintain, develop and operate the models on the Department's behalf. In practise INAS are responsible for taking all key decisions relating to the key input parameters used in the modelling whilst Scott Wilson Group Plc implement the changes on the Department's behalf.

To provide oversight to the work to develop the next generation of forecasts the Department has established a Project Board made up of senior officials from across the DfT and an independent peer reviewer. The Project Board is supported by a Technical Working Group, which includes representatives from INAS, its consultants, an independent peer reviewer, an external appraisal expert and representatives from elsewhere in the DfT with relevant expertise. A report written by the independent peer reviewer giving his views on whether the amended methods are fit for the purpose will be published alongside the next generation of forecasts.

Request 2

As set out in The Future of Air Transport published in 2003 the Government intends to regularly publish updated forecasts and appraisals of capacity expansion as and when there is a policy need, as it did most recently in January 2009 alongside the announcement of policy decisions on the future development of Heathrow airport.

The Department regularly updates and develops the models between publication dates. However, given that they are long-term forecasts, it would not be cost effective to publish them on a more regular basis given the amount of effort involved in agreeing and, where appropriate, peer reviewing the assumptions being used in the models, checking the model outputs and producing a technical report describing the methods and assumptions underpinning the forecasts.

The next generation of demand and CO₂ forecasts and updated assessments of the benefits of airport expansions will be published in due course, potentially alongside the draft Airports National Policy Statement or the Government's response to the Climate Change Committee's report Meeting the UK Aviation Target - options for reducing emissions in 2050.

As stated in my previous letter, we expect to be in a position to provide a substantive response in respect of your requests 3 and 4 by 22 April.

If you are unhappy with the way the Department has handled your request or with the decisions made in relation to your request you may complain within two calendar months of the date of this letter by writing to the Department's Information Rights Unit at:

Zone D/04

Ashdown House

Sedlescombe Road North

Hastings

East Sussex TN37 7GA

E-mail: [email address].uk   

Please see Annex A for details of DfT's complaints procedure and your right to complain to the Information Commissioner.

If you have any queries about this letter, please contact me. Please remember to quote the reference number above in any future communications.

Yours sincerely,

Richard Clarkson

Annex A

Your right to complain to DfT and the Information Commissioner

You have the right to complain within two calendar months of the date of this letter about the way in which your request for information was handled and/or about the decision not to disclose all or part of the information requested. In addition a complaint can be made that DfT has not complied with its FOI publication scheme.

Your complaint will be acknowledged and you will be advised of a target date by which to expect a response. Initially your complaint will be re-considered by the official who dealt with your request for information. If, after careful consideration, that official decides that his/her decision was correct, your complaint will automatically be referred to a senior independent official who will conduct a further review. You will be advised of the outcome of your complaint and if a decision is taken to disclose information originally withheld this will be done as soon as possible.

If you are not content with the outcome of the internal review, you have the right to apply directly to the Information Commissioner for a decision. The Information Commissioner can be contacted at:

 Information Commissioner's Office
 Wycliffe House
 Water Lane
 Wilmslow
 Cheshire
 SK9 5AF