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EIR Request E0006237

This package of files responds to the part 4 of request E0006237 in relation to UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts",published January 2009 (APDCF09) (http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/atf/co2forecasts09/co2forecasts09.pdf).

Part 4 of the request is for An actual copy of the software code for the models, including inputs, in a form that someone with access to the same software platforms could rerun them with minimum of effort.

This request was later narrowed to “require the software code for the models without the work necessary to provide a functioning version which could be rerun with the minimum of effort” (Letter ICO to DfT, 3 December 2010)

The files described are in sequential order of their use in the full operation of the UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasting Framework as described in Chapter 2 of UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, January 2009

The framework is illustrated in Figure 2.2 of that document.

All external input files and the non-proprietary software code for program modules in this framework are provided. But it should be noted that many of the program inputs will be interface output files of upstream programs in the framework.

The results produced in the Annexes to APDCF09 include a range of demand case sensitivities and capacity scenarios. The main case considered is the `01' Central Demand Case assumptions (see APDCF09 paragraphs 2.20-2.30) and the central `s12s2' capacity scenario (see APDCF09 Tables 2.6-2.8). The monetised net benefit calculations reported in Chapter 4 of APDCF09 require two capacity scenarios to be compared. We are therefore also providing capacity input files for `s02' and `s07' capacity scenarios (see APDCF09 Tables 2.6-2.8).as these are required to calculate the `s12s2' net benefits via an intermediate calculation of `s07' net benefits. Other sensitivity cases in the report can be created out of the central input case files provided and the APDCF09 descriptions of the tests.

A schedule of input files and code provided is provided in Annex 1.

See file note 17 about airport surface access and district to district cost files where all output databases used as inputs are provided rather than underlying proprietary computer codes and networks.

ANNEX 1: Schedule and Description of Input Files and Software Code.

Code?

File

Description

Comment

N

FcModel_01_Central.xls

National Air Passenger Demand Model (NAPDM)

The initial forecast of central unconstrained passenger demand before it is allocated to airports. This file contains the 21 econometric demand models described in Annexes A & B of APDCF09.

This file has data inputs which will be varied to create demand case sensitivities.

There are links to a variety of external spreadsheets, but these are mostly data that can be fetched from external sources over the internet.

Y (VBA)

DistGrowth3_DLL26b_01.xls

Unconstrained Passenger Demand by zone (`Distgrowth')

This is the interface program used to convert national demand forecasts into zone level forecasts prior to running the National Air Passenger ALlocation Model (NAPALM).

This has input links to an appropriate version of the NAPDM.

The VBA macro code controls any user input local variations to the NAPDM control total. To make these calculations Distgrowth requires NAPALM input base year demand matrices. These are files 3,4,5.

N

MatrixDLL26.xls

Passenger Demand Matrices

N

DomMat2004.xls

Internal Domestic Passenger Demand Matrices

(Y)

IImat2004.xls

International to International Passenger Demand Matrices

The VBA macro included is not an essential part of the framework, but is used to make the matrices symmetrical.

Y (VBA)

Pip_Go26b.XLS

Program interface to prepare 79 binary inputs and launch NAPALM (SPASM) passenger allocation program.

VBA macros extract data from the Excel input files listed on [SetUp] [B2:B20] to create the NAPALM/SPASM binary inputs specified in [SetUp] [F25:F103]. Some of the binary file data inputs are extracted from this file itself.

The file launches the SPASM C++ code compiled to a .DLL in the form of an Excel function call. Single or batch processes are possible.

N

SPASM.INI

Initialisation file

This needs to be in a directory specified in the PipGo26 VBA code for the DLL to execute.

Y

NAPALM Code.zip

C++ Source Code for the National Air Passenger Allocation Model (NAPALM)

NAPALM aka SPASM

For Microsoft Visual Studio .NET 2003

(Y)

IIMat2004_DLL26b.XLS

International to International Passenger Demand Matrices

Slightly updated version of matrix used for a assignment in NAPALM. See note for 5.

N

airportData_12s2

Airport related data inputs

Capacity scenario s12s2

N

airportData_02

Airport related data inputs

Capacity scenario s02 (for economic evaluation)

N

airportData_07

Airport related data inputs

Capacity scenario s07 (for economic evaluation)

N

AnnualParams_2006.xls

Annual Parameters

Global model parameters which potentially change over time.

N

LarNewDLL25Fixed.xls

Passenger to Aircraft Size Graphs

Defines and allocates graphs to convert passenger demand by route to aircraft sizes.

N

FareDLL26b

Fare file.

Fares, distances and generalised cost calibration adjusters.

N

NetData_2006.xls

Network File

Initial ATM input supply side data.

N

CAA9900.XLS

Base year surface access costs.

District to airport highway and public transport costs extracted (`skimmed') from proprietary National Airport Accessibility Model (NAAM) transport networks. NAAM networks are proprietary and cannot be supplied. The transport software to skim costs (MINITRAMP) is also 3rd party proprietary and cannot be supplied. MINITRAMP also requires a data key (dongle). However, all the skimmed cost data extracted from NAAM that is used as surface access cost inputs for all the APDCF09 scenarios are supplied with the additional files 18, 19, and 23-28.

N

CAA0912.XLS

Future Year 1 surface access costs.

For Scenario s12s2.

N

CAA1912.XLS

Future Year 2 surface access costs

For Scenario s12s2

N

surf9900.xls

Base Year district to district surface transport costs.

Highway and public transport zone to zone skimmed costs. Source is NAAM and MINITRAMP. See comments on 17 above.

Only one network is used for all APDCF09 scenarios.

N

surf0900.xls

Future Year 1 district to district surface transport costs

Only one network is used for all APDCF09 scenarios.

N

surf1900.xls

Future Year 2 district to district surface transport costs

Only one network is used for all APDCF09 scenarios.

N

CAA0902.XLS

Additional airport surface access skim files. Future Year 1.

Scenario s02

N

CAA0905.XLS

Additional airport surface access skim files. Future Year 1.

Scenario s05

N

CAA0907.XLS

Additional airport surface access skim files. Future Year 1.

Scenario s07

N

CAA1902.XLS

Additional airport surface access skim files. Future Year 2.

Scenario s02

N

CAA1905.XLS

Additional airport surface access skim files. Future Year 2.

Scenario s05

N

CAA1907.XLS

Additional airport surface access skim files. Future Year 2.

Scenario s07

Y (VBA)

ORANGELiteTR08v9.xls

NAPALM (SPASM) Output Processor “Orange”.

NAPALM is set up to output .TAB text files which are decoded and tabulated into more user friendly Excel tables by this program. Orange outputs include the Fleet Mix Model and CO2 Forecasting Model shown in Figure 2.2 of APDCF09.

Y (VBA)

ORANGELiteDistrict.xls

NAPALM (SPASM) Output Processor for district level analysis.

Sister output processing overflow program to file 30 because PC memory limitations require some analysis of passenger ground origins (large array sizes) to be undertaken separately.

Y (VBA)

FleetMix_Central_e1a.XLS

Fleet Mix Model

The purpose of this file is to convert seat-banded NAPALM ATM outputs by route (classATMs) and convert these banded ATMs to proportions of specific aircraft types by year for the CO2 modelling using a fleet rollover model. Must be invoked if the CO2 Model is run.

N

LHRTerminal_psdhR3.xls

Heathrow route to terminal allocations.

This input file is only required if “Airport Details” in Orange [Parameters] [C15] are requested for Heathrow and provides data to allocate particular routes to terminals at Heathrow.

N

CO2_SC01_e1a_TR08v12.xls

CO2 Forecasting Model Inputs

The CO2 Forecasting Model is run from the program Orange. The CO2 Forecasting Model requires seat banded ClassATM NAPALM outputs, aircraft type proportions from the Fleet Mix Model (file 31) and the additional data on specific aircraft fuel burn rates in this input. This file also contained data inputs for the calculation of APD tax revenue.

N

SCAB26Template_TR08v12.xls

Transport User Benefits Model (SCAB)

The SCAB file uses Orange processed NAPALM model outputs and two airport input files (e.g. files 11-12). These files are specified on the sheet [NPV] in the cells [B70:B79]. There is one external input file which is not output which is file 36.

Y

pickSCABTR08v12_Data.xls

Processor to assemble model outputs for SCAB

Collects data from files specified in SCAB [NPV] [B70:B79].

N

Central Growth.xls

Additional data input for SCAB

This file contains links to various other model outputs from previous runs, but contains all the necessary data required to run all the appraisals reported in APDCF09.